The Progressive Wing

Should Biden consider spending big in Deep Red States Like GA, OH, & TX?

Jonathan Martin at the NYT writes:

In a series of phone calls, Democratic lawmakers and party officials have lobbied Mr. Biden and his top aides to seize what they believe could be a singular opportunity not only to defeat Mr. Trump but to rout him and discredit what they believe is his dangerous style of racial demagogy.

This election, the officials argue, offers the provocative possibility of a new path to the presidency through fast-changing states like Georgia and Texas, and a chance to install a generation of lawmakers who can cement Democratic control of Congress and help redraw legislative maps following this year’s census.

Mr. Biden’s campaign, though, is so far hewing to a more conservative path. It is focused mostly on a handful of traditional battlegrounds, where it is only now scaling up and naming top aides despite having claimed the nomination in April.

At the moment, Mr. Biden is airing TV ads in just six states, all of which Mr. Trump won four years ago: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida. The campaign included perennially close Florida only after some deliberations about whether it was worth the hefty price tag, and when Mr. Trump’s struggles with older populations made it clearly competitive, according to Democrats familiar with their discussions.

The campaign’s reluctance to pursue a more expansive strategy owes in part to the calendar: Mr. Biden’s aides want to see where the race stands closer to November before they broaden their focus and commit to multimillion-dollar investments, aware that no swing states, let alone Republican-leaning states, have actually been locked up.

I think Mr. Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon should be well advised her client is not Barack Obama for re-election. But yet, these centrists persist:

“Trump’s abominable presidency, especially in the context of the total failure to confront coronavirus, makes Texas very winnable,” said Representative Filemon Vela, an early Biden supporter. He said he is “getting bombarded” with pleas from Texas Democrats who are similarly convinced the state could turn blue with a substantial commitment.”

Mr. Vela, who represents a long stretch of South Texas, said he had repeatedly made his case in recent weeks with Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon. He argued that the former vice president’s strength with Black voters and suburbanites, and his ability to shave the party’s rural losses, gave him the party’s best chance in decades to claim the state’s 38 electoral votes.

Yes, Trump hit and ran, got caught this time with a pandemic, which finally unveiled more layers of racism, and gross incompetence. Personally, I think Biden’s consultant class really needs to focus on the VP, the platform, and strategies for dealing with a deep recession if he wins. I would not worry about ad buys. The networks are going to have to cut their prices as it is.

Moreover, Biden appears fragile to those who don’t know him very well, especially younger voters. Trump is an old man too, with gaffes. But it would not take very many gaffes for Biden to make on TV or in speeches online to deter some voters into staying with the devil they know or not vote at all in those red states.

The Clinton camp was overconfident in steering resources away from WI, MI, and PA by going to AZ in 2016. Going to AZ may make sense this cycle, but OH? Only if Biden picked Nina Turner to run with him. Otherwise, let’s hope history with the DNC consultant class doesn’t repeat the mistakes of 2016. Although they are bound to, just listening to the dull platform from 2012 2016 being proposed for 2020.

What’s going on your neck of the beach, woods, desert, or prairie? or urban areas?

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