1/7-9 Weekend News Roundup & Open Thread
U.S. Details Costs of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine
The Biden administration and its allies are assembling a punishing set of financial, technology and military sanctions against Russia that they say would go into effect within hours of an invasion of Ukraine, hoping to make clear to President Vladimir V. Putin the high cost he would pay if he sends troops across the border.
In interviews, officials described details of those plans for the first time, just ahead of a series of diplomatic negotiations to defuse the crisis with Moscow, one of the most perilous moments in Europe since the end of the Cold War. The talks begin on Monday in Geneva and then move across Europe.
The plans the United States has discussed with allies in recent days include cutting off Russia’s largest financial institutions from global transactions, imposing an embargo on American-made or American-designed technology needed for defense-related and consumer industries, and arming insurgents in Ukraine who would conduct what would amount to a guerrilla war against a Russian military occupation, if it comes to that.
Such moves are rarely telegraphed in advance. But with the negotiations looming — and the fate of Europe’s post-Cold War borders and NATO’s military presence on the continent at stake — President Biden’s advisers say they are trying to signal to Mr. Putin exactly what he would face, at home and abroad, in hopes of influencing his decisions in coming weeks.
snip
While the Commerce and Treasury Departments work on sanctions that would maximize America’s advantages over Russia, the Pentagon is developing plans that have echoes of the proxy wars of the 1960s and ’70s.
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
A brewing conflict. Antagonism between Ukraine and Russia has been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a rebellion in the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015, but peace has been elusive.A spike in hostilities. Russia has recently been building up forces near its border with Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric toward its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew in late October, when Ukraine used an armed drone to attack a howitzer operated by Russian-backed separatists.
Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.
The Kremlin’s position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscow’s military buildup was a response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance.
A measured approach. President Biden has said he is seeking a stable relationship with Russia. So far, his administration is focusing on maintaining a dialogue with Moscow, while seeking to develop deterrence measures in concert with European countries.
To underscore the potential pain for Russia, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, spoke with his Russian counterpart two weeks ago and delivered a stark message: Yes, he said, you could invade Ukraine and probably roll over the Ukrainian military, which stands little chance of repelling a far larger, better armed Russian force.
But the swift victory would be followed, General Milley told Gen. Valery Gerasimov, by a bloody insurgency, similar to the one that led to the Soviet retreat from Afghanistan more than three decades ago, according to officials familiar with the discussion.
General Milley did not detail to General Gerasimov the planning underway in Washington to support an insurgency, a so-called “porcupine strategy” to make invading Ukraine hard for the Russians to swallow. That includes the advance positioning of arms for Ukrainian insurgents, probably including Stinger antiaircraft missiles, that could be used against Russian forces.
More than a month ago, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, created a new interagency planning cell to examine a range of contingencies if Mr. Putin goes ahead with an invasion. The cell, which reports directly to Mr. Sullivan, includes representatives from the National Security Council, the intelligence agencies and the Departments of Defense, State, Treasury, Energy and Homeland Security.
The cell is attempting to tailor responses to the many types of attacks that could unfold in the next few weeks, from cyberattacks aimed at crippling Ukraine’s electric grid and pipelines to the seizure of small or large amounts of territory.
Intelligence officials said recently that they thought the least likely possibility was a full-scale invasion in which the Russians try to take the capital, Kyiv. Many of the assessments, however, have explored more incremental moves by Mr. Putin, which could include seizing a bit more land in the Donbas region, where war has ground into a stalemate, or a land bridge to Crimea.
Several officials familiar with the planning say the administration is looking at European nations that could provide more aid to support Ukrainian forces before any conflict, as well as in the initial stages of a Russian invasion.
Lt. Col. Anton Semelroth, a Defense Department spokesman, noted in December that the United States had already committed over $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014, including $450 million in 2021 alone. Over the past three months, it has delivered 180 Javelin missiles, two patrol boats, ammunition for grenade launchers, machine guns, secure radios, medical equipment and other items that U.S. officials describe as defensive in nature.
But the planning cell is considering more lethal weaponry, such as antiaircraft weapons.
After visiting Ukraine last month, Representative Seth Moulton, Democrat of Massachusetts and a former Marine officer, said that in his view, “We need to make any incursion by Russia more painful — Day 1 painful, not six months from now painful.”
“We have a short window to take decisive action to deter Putin from a serious invasion,” Mr. Moulton said in an interview. “I worry our current deterrent tactics are responding to an invasion rather than preventing it.”
One option likely to be discussed at NATO this coming week is a plan to increase, possibly by several thousand, the number of troops stationed in the Baltics and in Southeast Europe.
Jake Sullivan is a Hil hawk.
More news, tweets, perspectives in the comments below. This serves as an open thread.
More from the SCOTUS blog…
I’ve been listening on CSPAN radio. Breyer gave the pro-business legal team a lot of grief today.
I can’t say that the conservative judges are convinced the case should be argued, but trying to understand what the fundamental question is. Sotomayor is also sternly questioning the pro-business, anti-vax mandate team.
Well, I am retired, following my Covid protocol, and will continue regardless of how SCOTUS rules.
Right now we have several branches of Govt other than the 3
MIC
Heatlh Insurance
Big oil
Pharmaceutical
Banksters
Judiciary (controled by the Federalist society)
Legislative
Executive
More could be added to the list but you get the picture
and we know which ones control the others.
Add this one to the list –
The Family: It’s Not About Faith, It’s About Power | Official Trailer | Netflix
Trailer: https://youtu.be/7knN2TXQPzw
yes. and i will admit that the right is better organized than we are, getting judges appointed and taking local positions of power.
Has anyone ever challenged a business that displays their policy on the door – NO SHIRT, NO SHOES, NO ENTRY? Has the Supreme Ct ever considered it? Why are they hearing this?
idk, but They may be OK with a private business doing that, but not the government?
i’m sure there is precedent with other vaccines, like polio and perhaps smallpox, but you know this court. I’d like to see it packed.
Have a cup of hot cocoa! It’s zero in Central IL!
We had our first real snow of the season last night. Only about 3-4 inches though. More to our south and east.
Snow storm also missed us. We had a dusting of snow on Monday, but disappeared pretty quickly.
73 and low humidity down here in Dumbstateville.🤪
On the other hand 😔
Only going to worsen……groan.🙄
Were headed for – teens Sunday night/single digets for highs Monday 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
That does it! Benny’s Bar is Open!
wi63-here’s your Wi Old Fashion Brandy!
Benny’s bar is open! What’s your beverage choice? I’ve already served wi63 his drink.
Ms. Benny, jcb, la58, and all other diehard educated music fan Nesters: are we doing tunes this weekend, too? 🙂 BTW, I’ll take a double vodka tonic with lots of fresh sliced lime. LOL.
Sorry I was not on duty later. But here’s your drink!
Thank you, m’am. 🙂
Thanks Benny Gonna need several as it just broke that the Moron from Wi is running for a 3rd term😬🤬🤬🤬
YAAAYY!!! I was just saying, dayyum, all we get is hot chocolate on a Fri night.
And what’s your choice?
Wild Turkey 101 with Red Rock Ginger ale and a twist of lime, thank you.
I couldn’t find a photo of fresh lime for your drink. Could lemon be substituted?
(While smiling) Absolutely, thank you very much. I will generously tip my bartender.
Yikes! That’s super-cold.
It’s a relatively balmy 28F here in CT right now, feels like 20F, which is our high today.
But by Tuesday night we are expecting 6F/feel like -6F.
Stay warm!
In Opposing Student Debt Relief, Susan Rice Breaks With Her Family History
Shame! Shame! Shame on Susan!!! Humanity on the decline.
I disagree with Reed, the father, on this analysis. Actually, I disagree with father and son on some points. Interesting discussion.
She obviously has no idea what poverty is like, unlike her late, much smarter mother.
Another possibility is that she is now part of the ‘I’ve got mine…good luck!’ club.
Biden’s Pick for FDA Could Squeak Through With Help From Pharma-Funded Republicans
https://prospect.org/power/bidens-pick-for-fda-robert-califf-could-squeak-through/
Aren’t all (or almost all) Republicans pharma funded?
He may be referring to the ones on the HELP committee. Bernie is on that committee too I think.
Bernie is the only one who isn’t a slimeball.
How cozy, bunch of corrupt crooks. What’s Manchin trying to pull? He’s one of the worse of the bunch!💩💩💩💩
Democrats could make sure he doesn’t get in.
These viruses are just the 1st inning for mother nature to eradicate the species thats hurting her, soon a pandemic will hit we cant react to. Stay tuned. There’s a lot of doom and gloom out their but when we have a majority of people running things that dont give a damn about anything other than Profit/Power were self destructing and can’t get out of our own way to fix it…
But Romney already thanked him, how many times does he have express his gratitude?
(/s)
Srsly tho, Romney seems like he has a huge ego.
Romney Feb 10,2021:
1) “I just again told him”
2) “I appreciated him”
3) “that I was out of harm’s way”
Romney sounds like he went to the Hillary Clinton school of politico speaking, I, I, I.
I’ll believe it when tRump is actually indicted and blocked from running ever again in this country. Am I holding my breath? N-O.
Sidney’s breakout roll in a similar movie. This time playing a student.
They had some smokin’ tunes on that soundtrack.🎼🎼👏👏
My favorite of all of his films. Second favorite was one I watched earlier this evening, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner. Still relevant today.
Great actor, artist, and human being. May he rest in powerful ☮️.
To me a very dignified actor and person, the world could use a few more like him
Sorry, couldn’t get the links to work. This is from site of Fair.org.
https://fair.org/home/tutu-obits-underplay-his-advocacy-for-palestine/
Lol. Seems to work in this comment.
I had a lot of respect for Nelson Mandela, but just a wee bit more for Desmond Tutu. 👏
Thou shall not acknowledge Palestinians …
T and R, and thanks, Ms. Benny!! 💫☮️😊👍
Talk about blatant in-your-face disgusting hypocrisy, we get to put up with Botoxed Pelousy holding hands with major white collar FRightwing crook Dickhead Cheney. 💩Just like PBO and FLBO playing kissy face with Dumbya. 💩 Who do these yahoos think they’re kidding?!? There are quite a few Americans still left in this country who aren’t stupid! Nor have they/we forgotten how the FRightwingnuts are doing one heckuva job destroying our country. 😡💩
Incredibly nauseating. Dick freakin’ Cheney!