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jcitybone

Mayor Pete won’t be picking up any supporters from Bernie so his rise could be helpful if it cuts into the support of Biden and Warren. That being said, MP’s attacks on Warren using M4A etc. do need to forcefully countered by Bernie and his surrogates. MP is never going to get significant POC support so he really is no threat for the nomination.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-debate-moderates/moderate-democratic-candidates-strategy-shifts-from-taking-down-biden-to-attacking-warren-idUSKBN1WW1AH?utm_source=reddit.com

Buttigieg went into the debate with a clear strategy of drawing contrasts between himself and Warren, according to a campaign adviser who asked for anonymity to discuss strategy.

The two candidates engaged in a fierce back-and-forth over healthcare policy.

The campaign believes that in attacking Warren, Buttigieg is also positioning himself as a viable alternative to Biden and stands to pick up supporters not only from his campaign but from other Democratic contenders.

Buttigieg may be best positioned to make a run at Biden. After a strong fundraising performance in the third quarter of the year, the mayor has more than $20 million in cash on hand and has already invested in more resources in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

magsview

Don midwest
Don midwest

fear of taxes as big as fear of communism, it seems

jcitybone

From our friend Nate Silver—I say go for it Liz. If she does it’s probably going to be very subtle. Also I definitely do not believe the Q poll that Warren leads very liberal voters over Bernie by 50-11. Maybe she leads very liberal white college-educated $100k+ voters by that margin.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-aoc-and-omar-endorsements-could-help-sanders/

Warren has some tough decisions about whether to lean to the left or the center. One tempting strategy for Warren might be to essentially concede that Sanders is further to the left than she is. Step back and let swing voters associate Ocasio-Cortez and Omar with Sanders, not her, for instance. That doesn’t necessarily mean giving up on voters who identify themselves as left-wing. But it would mean not trying to outdo Sanders by moving further to his left. And it might mean subtlety trying to convey the idea that she’s actually the compromise choice between Sanders on her left, and Joe Biden on her right.

This could be risky, for various reasons. Warren’s current coalition relies a lot on support from the left; 50 percent of “very liberal” voters in the most recent Quinnipiac poll say they prefer Warren, as compared to just 11 percent for Sanders. Meanwhile, trying to strike a middle ground has been difficult for candidates such as Kamala Harris. On the other hand, voters (backed up by a lot of political science research) tend to perceive more moderate candidates as being more “electable,” and electability perceptions have been a problem for Warren. Furthermore, she may eventually need to add support from voters who currently support Biden, and Biden has more support than Sanders, so she could have more to gain than to lose by moving very subtly toward the center.

orlbucfan

Someone kindly explain to me how Liz moves “very subtly toward the center.” Silver means picking up the support of corporate GOPuke Lites. Well, Liz will have to fight Bye-done, and Buttagag for that crowd. Good. I hope the three eat each other alive. T and R, LD!!

Tyrannocaster

To say that Silver is a dishonest actor is an understatement. I have blocked him on Twitter and I won’t read his crap any more. Unfortunately, some people still do, and it leaks out anyway. Bottom line: anything he says that is not just relaying bare numbers is WRONG. He thinks because he is a competent poll aggregator he is a pundit. Classic mistake where an intellect can’t see its own incompetence.

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