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Paul ADK

The miracle is nobody wants it.

NYCVG

Good morning Benny and our bunch.

Seven days left. S-E-V-E-N

65 Million Early Votes so far. In 2016, 154 Million votes were cast.

NYC registered 315,000 Early Votes in just 3 days. 5 more days to go.

74,323 New Covid. USA daily average is now at 70,000 cases per day up 30,000 per day from the summer average of 40,000.

Deaths yesterday were 534.

jcitybone

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaign-coronavirus-trump-biden/2020/10/26/572fe2be-17a1-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html?utm_source=reddit.com

Faced with record levels of U.S. coronavirus infections and a new White House outbreak, President Trump declared Monday that the pandemic was “ending anyway,” further tying his reelection bid to his ability to convince voters, including those at large rallies that defy health authorities, that the viral danger is fading.

Financial markets fell as he spoke, with investors reacting to the growing infection rates and dwindling hope of a pre-election stimulus package.

Vice President Pence canceled a planned appearance at the U.S. Senate for the expected confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett as a Supreme Court justice, after Democrats objected because he has been in close contact with at least one of the five staff members who tested positive for the disease in recent days.

Over the past week, the nation has suffered a 20 percent increase in new diagnosed cases, a 13 percent rise in hospitalizations and an 11 percent rise in daily deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University, with the seven-day average of new cases reaching its highest level ever. The increase has been driven by spread in rural communities and northern states, including Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and parts of Michigan, all of which could play a decisive role in the presidential contest.

Trump nonetheless argued in three Pennsylvania rallies — where thousands gathered without social distancing or consistent mask-wearing — that the viral danger has been exaggerated by the news media and that Democratic politicians, including the governors of several swing states, had imposed unnecessary restrictions on large gatherings for political reasons.

“It’s ending anyway. We are rounding the turn. It’s ending anyway,” Trump said of the virus at an outdoor stop in Allentown, Pa. “Normal life. That’s what we want, right? Normal life. Normal life. We just want normal life. It’s happening, very quickly.”

jcitybone

Trump is not very popular in Allentown. Clinton won the district by 2 points. Biden is leading by 19.

Don midwest
Don midwest

we are still in the first wave of COVID

Winter is coming: Why America’s window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 is closing

talking to my great mechanic this morning

single, no kids, paying for public schools for 25 years

he doesn’t want a socialist like Biden

I mentioned that we are still in first wave

he says that because testing up, more cases

i said rate is too high

he said that he doesn’t believe the numbers, hospitalizations not spiked (yes, here in OH), and he expects the number of cases to go down after the election

well,….

Don midwest
Don midwest

number 8 has been achieved!!

what a milestone!!!

Don midwest
Don midwest
Don midwest
Don midwest

someone said, maybe on this blog, that Biden does something every day that pisses off progressives

is this the one thing for today, or will there be more?

polarbear4

this kind of cruel insanity will not be magnified. it will be praised or shrugged off. vicious people and policies coated in smiling Lincoln Project “normalcy.” and harder and harder to undo.

orlbucfan

Considering her for what? I avoid Twit(ter).

polarbear4

Treasury Sec.

jcitybone

I’m not going to get too excited about “considering.” We will know soon enough who he’s going to pick so I’ll save my reactions to his choices until then. That being said Raimondo would be an awful choice,

polarbear4

imho, considering her is terrible. goes to state of mind and heart.

jcitybone

But the truth is, we have no idea if he is really “considering her. I’m going to save my outrage (or not) for the actual pick, which will come soon enough

wi62

Basically Bennys Bar better stock up on a lot of booze once Byedone puts his corporatist buddies in place, If he has a choice no one involved with Bernie will get close to any real power in his admin. I’m not counting any positions filled by seniority

polarbear4
polarbear4

it’s in the Boston globe, the American prospect, and Bezopo is urging it. you’re right, tho. MSM can’t be trusted.

i’ll stay with terrible.

polarbear4
polarbear4

Joe Biden’s transition team has informed Democratic officials that Gina Raimondo, the centrist governor of Rhode Island, is under consideration as the next Secretary of the Treasury should Biden win the election, multiple sources have confirmed to the Prospect

https://prospect.org/api/amp/politics/sources-gina-raimondo-being-considered-as-biden-treasury/

heart and mind

polarbear4
polarbear4

moved

jcitybone

jcitybone

A good rundown on how this election is very very different from 2016.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/27/alberta-final-feelings-2020-election-432718

With that in mind, here are 16 reasons why the 2020 election is nothing like 2016:

1. Four years ago, Trump won with a coalition of voters. While the fabled working-class whites were central to this coalition, he couldn’t have won without sizable support from suburban white women; from seniors ages 65 and older; and from independents who voted for Barack Obama in the previous election. Today, that coalition is in tatters. Trump ran competitively with college-educated white women against Hillary Clinton, losing them by 7 points; polling now suggests he could lose them by 25 points or more. Trump won seniors by 7 points against Clinton; polling now shows him consistently trailing among seniors by 5 to 15 points. Trump won independents by 4 points; polling now shows Joe Biden running up big margins with those voters. None of this means the president can’t assemble a new coalition to win this November. Indeed, his team has spent considerable time and resources targeting Hispanic voters and Black men, believing inroads with those groups could offset heavy losses elsewhere. Whether he’s successful, the fact remains: Trump’s coalition from 2016 no longer exists.

2. Four years ago, just a third of the country believed America was on the right track. These conditions were fundamentally advantageous to Trump, a political outsider, whose party had been out of power for eight years. Today, only one-fifth of the country believes America is on the right track. But this time, Trump bears the brunt of the public’s frustration, primarily due to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

3. Four years ago, Trump defeated a Democratic opponent who was intensely disliked by tens of millions of voters; who was viewed as untrustworthy by huge majorities of the public; who was under FBI investigation for much of the general election. Today, Trump is facing a Democratic opponent who does not polarize the country, who does not antagonize the right, and who is personally well-liked.

4. Four years ago, turnout was a mixed bag, with solid numbers in some states but anemic participation elsewhere. Early voting numbers lagged in many swing states, reflecting a lack of organizing on the ground. Today, a week out from Election Day, early voting totals have already rocketed past the final figures from 2016, and absentee ballots are pouring into clerks’ offices at a clip nobody ever thought possible. Overall turnout could shatter records. (More on that below.)

5. Four years ago, turnout was especially stagnant in battleground states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. (Fun fact: Despite carrying Wisconsin, Trump won fewer votes in the state than Mitt Romney did in 2012; Romney lost Wisconsin by 7 points.) This low turnout owed largely to waning enthusiasm in major Democratic strongholds, such as Detroit and Milwaukee. Today, organizers in these cities report voter-mobilization efforts that make 2016 look like a school board election.

6. Four years ago, sluggish voter turnout allowed Trump to win the Electoral College by threadbare majorities (77,744 votes combined in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) while losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million. It was widely acknowledged that had participation been modestly higher than the roughly 137 million people who voted, Clinton would have won. Today, experts believe we could be heading for turnout in the neighborhood of 160 million votes or higher—which would roughly match the scale of record-breaking turnout in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won the popular vote for the House by nearly 10 million votes.

7. Four years ago, nearly 8 million Americans cast ballots for a third-party presidential candidate, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson winning roughly 4.5 million of those votes. Today, with polls showing that voters almost universally view this election as a binary choice between Trump and Biden, third-party vote share will likely plummet. (This is one potential ace up Trump’s sleeve; Johnson stole more votes from Trump than Green Party nominee Jill Stein did from Clinton; based on my reporting, many Johnson voters in conservative counties, where he took upward of 5 percent, are coming home to the GOP, voting for a candidate they weren’t comfortable backing in 2016.)

8. Four years ago, the polls were … actually pretty darn accurate, at least at the national level. The final RealClearPolitics average projected Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points; she won by 2.1 points. If the average is off by an identical spread this year—if Biden beats Trump by 7.1 percentage points nationally, instead of the 8.3 points he’s leading by in the current averages—then he clobbers Trump in most if not all of the battleground states and carries somewhere north of 350 votes in the Electoral College.

9. Four years ago, some state-based polling missed the mark badly, in part because pollsters struggled to identify some Trump supporters—either people who didn’t want to share their support for him, or people who hadn’t yet decided. Today, pollsters have adjusted their methodologies and are confident they are capturing a more accurate picture of the president’s base; moreover, from my own reporting, it’s been nearly impossible to find the fabled “shy Trump voter” we heard so much about four years ago. Local GOP officials will be the first to tell you about the folks who were too nervous to put a Trump sign on their lawn four years ago but now have five of them plus two bumper stickers.

10. Four years ago, district-level polling was full of red flags for Clinton, as local Democrats saw her numbers flatlining due to consistent indicators of low voter enthusiasm. Today, that same district-level polling shows enthusiasm is off the charts, and the top-line numbers have changed accordingly: There are numerous congressional districts that Trump carried by 5 to 10 points in 2016 that he’ll likely lose by 5 to 10 points in 2020.

11. Four years ago, as I made clear in Nos. 8, 9 and 10, the polling was nowhere near as dire for Trump as it is today.

12. Four years ago, everything that possibly could have broken Trump’s way in the final three weeks of the race, did. Huge numbers of Republicans consolidated around him after panicking over the Access Hollywood tape in early October; his final two weeks of media coverage were by far his most positive of the entire campaign; and FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress, effectively reopening the Clinton email investigation just 11 days before the election, had a measurable effect on moderates and independent voters. The net result? Trump gained considerably on Clinton in the closing stretch. Today … well, between two shaky debate performances, a Covid-19 diagnosis, and Washington’s inability to deliver another round of economic aid, things are not exactly breaking the president’s way.

13. Four years ago, Democrats did not take Trump seriously. The party’s organizational efforts on the ground were a running joke. State parties bristled at tone-deaf directives handed down from Clinton’s campaign in Brooklyn; local Democratic rainmakers barely lifted a finger to help the nominee, so offended were they by her team’s arrogant approach (and so unworried about a Trump victory). Today, the Biden campaign has integrated itself with state and local parties, delegating major decision-making power to the people on the ground in places like Detroit, Phoenix and Charlotte.

14. Four years ago, the battleground map was not elastic. Trump had comfortable polling leads in states like Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas, all of which he won by decent margins. The only safe red state where Clinton got aggressive was Arizona. Today, Trump is playing defense in all five of those states, his resources stretched thinner and thinner across a battleground map that’s gotten wider and wider.

15. Four years ago, nobody knew how Trump would govern. Republicans worried—and Democrats hoped—that the new president would fancy himself a New York machine pol, hanging conservatives out to dry and cutting deals with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi on all sorts of populist initiatives. Today, there is no longer ambiguity as to Trump’s political true north: His embrace of socially conservative policies, deregulatory measures and tax cuts for rich people and corporations puts him, at least policywise, squarely in the Republican mainstream. His uncouth behavior notwithstanding, once-hesitant conservatives know exactly what they’re getting from a Trump administration. Then again, so do the moderates and independents who voted for him last time.

16. Four years ago, a Supreme Court vacancy was hanging in the balance. The election-year death of Justice Antonin Scalia, the conservative lion of the high court, gave Trump a critical leverage point that he exploited to rally conservative voters around his campaign. Republican leaders hammered this point home to their voters: This wasn’t about electing Trump; it was about electing a conservative Supreme Court. Today, those voters have a conservative Supreme Court; Monday’s confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett gives conservatives a 6-to-3 majority for years to come. It’s possible that this triumph rallies more troops to Trump. But it’s also possible that the president will be victimized by his own kept promises; that some anti-abortion evangelicals who agonized over the decision to support him in 2016, and did so precisely because they worried about the future of the courts, can now in good conscience vote against him, or just stay home, happy with the right’s takeover of the judiciary.