Home2020 Elections11/19 Evening Open Thread & News Roundup
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LOL. Not believing Bernie’s placement in this poll, which in their last two polls was also really low. But it certainly will catch Warren’s and Biden’s eyes with their big drops. Huge MOE of 6.1 since their sample was so small.

The sample also was ridiculously old with 60% 55+ (50%), 34% 65+ (18%), and 13% 18-29 (19%) (2016 exit polls in parenthesis). It also was a ridiculously over educated with 72% college graduate or more (60%) with 37% post graduate. (28%). With demographics like that of course Bernie won’t do well.


White House hopeful Pete Buttigieg (D) surged to a 10-point lead in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary, according to a new Saint Anselm College poll released Tuesday.

Buttigieg gets the support of 25 percent of self-identified likely Democratic primary voters, marking the first time the South Bend, Ind., mayor has emerged atop a poll in the Granite State. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are tied for second at 15 percent, while no other candidate breaks double digits. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) sits at third place at 9 percent.

The survey’s results show a 15-point jump for Buttigieg from the last Saint Anselm College poll released in September. The surge appears to have been fueled by drawing support from the other top contenders in the state’s primary – Biden, Warren and Sanders saw a 9-point, 10-point and 2-point drop, respectively.


The unfortunate part is this crap poll will get plenty of eyeballs without knowing how the internals are skewed.





A comment at DK about this poll, which doesn’t even go into the education/wealth screwiness. Because some of the polls over sampling should benefit Warren (education) and Biden (age), there probably is some movement by Pete at their expense.

In mid-October 2016, St. Anselm’s had Sanders at +5 at this time of this stage of the election. He ended up winning by 22.4 points.
According to the poll 18-35 year old voters are only 13% of the valid sample.

32% are over the age of 65.

In 2016 exit polls in the primary, 18-35 year olds accounted for 25% of the vote. Voters over the age of 65 were only 18% of primary voters.

This has been a consistent issue with the polls. There’s an assumption that there’s going to be a huge surge in older voters in 2020 and a massive decline in the participation of anyone under the age of 40. This seems like a dubious assumption given demographic trends and participation rates in the most recent election.

It’s not surprising though that Pete would be doing well in a poll of where more than 57% of the respondents are over the age of 55.


These skewed polls are directed for the weak minded or uninformed that have the I want to follow the winner mentality which often leads to them casting a vote that’s against their best interest’s -sadly



In our series “What Matters,” Harry Smith talks to Sen. Bernie Sanders about an issue that Democratic primary voters told us is a major concern as they weigh which candidate to support in 2020—the deadly opioid crisis that has devastated the nation.



Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is threatening former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead with Latino voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, with the winner set to potentially reap a huge collection of delegates that could prove crucial to deciding who emerges as the Democratic challenger to President Donald Trump.

Both men held town halls in Las Vegas this weekend ahead of a Nevada Democratic Party dinner here on Sunday night, and both used the opportunity to highlight their support in the first state to vote with a significant Latino population. Biden is relying on support from Latino and Black voters to keep his campaign alive and collect large sums of delegates to the Democratic National Convention even if he struggles in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Sanders’ strength with Latino voters is a direct threat to that strategy.

“I think the Latino vote will be the single most important part of the delegate map for any candidate this year,” said Chuck Rocha, a top strategist for Sanders’ campaign. “We’ve made [Latino voters] a part of the general strategy. In other campaigns, it’s been an afterthought. We’re not doing that to prove a point. We’re doing it because it’s smart politics.”

Rocha noted Latino voters are a growing presence in Iowa and South Carolina, and a key bloc in Nevada. But the real prize will come on Super Tuesday. Colorado, Texas and California ― all of which are more than 20% Latino, according to census data ― will combine for more than 700 delegates. And other Super Tuesday states, including Oklahoma, North Carolina and Virginia, are home to sizable Latino populations.


Don’t forget Florida.




T and R, mags!!


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