HomeUncategorized11.4 Open Thread. The Day After (cue the theme from “Jaws”)
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Don midwest
Don midwest

Don midwest
Don midwest

Nova Land
Nova Land

Biden being the Democratic candidate not only failed to produce an anti-Trump landslide, it also failed to produce the coattails needed by other Democratic candidates — especially senate candidates — in order to gain clear and decisive control of congress.

The strategy of having a Democratic candidate who says very little of substance about the issues which matter to people (and what they intend to do about those issues) and focuses instead on meaningless phrases like “the soul of the nation” has proven once again to be a losing strategy. If we want to win elections rather than pre-election polls we really need to put forward candidates who speak out plainly and clearly about what they stand for and what they’ll fight for if elected. Unfortunately those aren’t the candidates the Democratic establishment prefers.

Benny

it also failed to produce the coattails needed by other Democratic candidates — especially senate candidates — in order to gain clear and decisive control of congress.

That was the #1 rationale that Obama gave for Biden (in arm twisting Dems to get behind Joe) was that Bernie’s coat tails weren’t very long, and he couldn’t win.

Nova Land
Nova Land

I think Obama had it exactly backwards. Bernie Sanders’ coattails would have brought in people excited by the policies he was putting forward — people who’d vote Democratic down-ballot to help give him the congress he needed to get those policies enacted. And some of the Republicans disgusted by Trump might not be willing to vote for Sanders, in which case many of them would stay home in disgust rather than voting — which would help Sanders get elected by lowering Trump’s vote count without hurting Democrats down-ballot.

In contrast, Joe Biden’s coattails failed to excite a lot of voters who’d have voted Democratic down-ballot (who may, then, have decided not to bother voting). But his coattails probably did include a lot of Republican Voters Against Trump and Lincoln Project followers — who’d be very likely to vote Republican down-ballot in order to keep Biden in check, since they were voting for him out of disgust for Trump rather than excitement for Biden and wouldn’t want him to be able to enact Democratic policies.

I think as many or more people would have voted for Sanders as voted for Biden. There’s no sure way of knowing that, of course, outside of getting help from the Legends of Tomorrow. But as for the down-ballot, to me at least it’s clear that the people Sanders brought in would have been more willing and eager to vote for Democrats down-ballot to kick out the GOP progressive-haters than the people Biden brought in.

Benny

But as for the down-ballot, to me at least it’s clear that the people Sanders brought in would have been more willing and eager to vote for Democrats down-ballot to kick out the GOP progressive-haters than the people Biden brought in.

Very salient observations, NL.

OzoneTom
OzoneTom

Senator Sanders appeal was due to policy not personality. People will work for policy they support.

phatkhat

Tio Bernie would also have galvanized Latinx everywhere but Miami. And apparently, Joe didn’t get them, either, despite the DNC saying he would.

wi64

I would bet that Bernie would’ve went to Miami and talked to them if he was the candidate, he wouldn’t blow them off

Don midwest
Don midwest

Polarbear suggested this person who wrote a wonderful review of Bruno Latour’s small book “Down to Earth: Politics In The New Climatic Regime”

She is farther to the left than I am, but thoughtful tweets.

Here dissertation was on Hannah Arendt and Aristotle and is strong on Latour

I suggest that you consider adding her to your twitter list.

https://twitter.com/arendtiana/status/1323920790308282370?s=20

While her current handle is a racoon troop, you can see that she still is connected to Arendt in arendtiana

She like many consider Hannah Arendt as the most important political philosopher, not political scientist, of the last century. You can see her come up in many articles. I was given my first Hannah Arendt book, “The Human Condition” in the summer of 1967

https://twitter.com/arendtiana/status/1323937980189323265?s=20

Don midwest
Don midwest

Not a surprise that those I follow on twitter post messages

This young man recently completed his PhD in Wales. His department was International Relations but his dissertation, long, deep, important, is on the term Mileauu in the 19th century. And so l much more. Another person I found through their work on Latour, but also has a very, very strong voice of their own. Unlike me who is more of a John The Baptist type who is struggling to get through material and cry out — look at this! look over

here!!!

In Phillip’s dissertation — lots on geography and philology

Like a number of very talented PhD’s having trouble finding employment.

Here is information on his dissertation

Thesis
My Ph.D. thesis, The Historical Ontology of Environment: From the Unity of Nature to the Birth of Geopolitics [pdf], investigates the historical development of three concepts:

Milieu
Climate
Environment

Altogether, it covers a period from antiquity to around the start of the twentieth century. It pays particular attention to how concepts pass between domains—for example, as the concept of ‘medium’ (or ‘milieu’) passed from being a physical or metaphysical concept into being a literary, biological, sociological, and political one. Moreover, it situates these concepts in terms of the material and political significance they had in their particular time period—for example, as the concept of climate informed medical practice, was visualised via new cartographical techniques, and provided a conceptual basis for colonial administration.

More generally, I articulate these stories in terms of ‘historical ontology.’ While this term is usually associated with Michel Foucault’s ‘genealogical’ histories, I reinterpret ontology to signify the ways in which things are, as I put it, ‘received as real’ by different collectives. My work also has, therefore, an extensive philosophical dimension.

Don midwest
Don midwest

Don midwest
Don midwest

Don midwest
Don midwest

But after consuming hours of news on Tuesday night, and observing the election results thus far, there are a few things that we can be certain of.

● That we should never again put as much stock in public opinion polls, and those who interpret them, as we’ve grown accustomed to doing. Polling seems to be irrevocably broken, or at least our understanding of how seriously to take it is.

The supposedly commanding lead that Joe Biden carried for weeks didn’t last very long into Tuesday evening. This was a lead, remember, that many predicted could result in a landslide Biden victory, help turn the Senate blue, and bring the Democrats amazing victories in red states like Ohio and Florida.

article by Margret Sullivan who became well known when she was the ombdusperson at NYT

We still don’t know much about this election — except that the media and pollsters blew it again

excellent democracyNow.org this morning on and on on how much the dems screwed up

the above point by Sullivan about reliance on pollsters

on democracynow – need to earn votes, not take for granted and rely on consultants – which is what happened with the Hillary election loss

dems not organized to reach people

I sure got tons of calls and tweets this time after I signed up to many places on the web

but the dem party is NOT focused on reaching out

I got involved in the Franklin County OH dem party in 2004. Only one employee and a part time person doing finance. Computers were hand me downs. 800* precincts and mob rule.

I kept asking “what is the dem party doing about education in democracy”? the answer was a voter guide listing dem candidates

my got we have to get Trump out of there. But the nation wide bernie educational campaign needs to continue

but now we are so divided, and simple arguments do not work against hardened ideological positions

and if a country doesn’t even follow the basics during a pandemic, and the president holds a rally in his house to the wee hours of the morning — did they wear masks?

well, clear what the dem party stands for. Hold onto their power. Like the repubs.

jcitybone

Yeah the polls were terrible, but actually they were way worse than four years ago. The national polls for Clinton was fairly accurate, only off by one. They are going to be way more off this time, worse by far than anything else in the modern polling era. They missed everywhere, national presidential, states presidential, Senate, and House. The pollsters really need to explain what went wrong. Maybe they can’t and we are in shenanigans territory.

Benny

Because they sampled the same voters over and over, and most Trump voters were not going to admit they were voting for Trump.

OzoneTom
OzoneTom

Huge misses for Graham in SC and Collins in ME though for instance, so I’d agree with jcb on the terribleness of polling this year.

polarbear4

those machines are always silently sitting…

Don midwest
Don midwest

jcitybone

Ok Biden did poorly, but so did our progressive candidates. The House candidates I supported all lost or are losing. Swearengin and Bradshaw were crushed by around 30 points.

This occurring with the backdrop of what’s going on right now with Covid and the economy. I really do not like a big chunk of our citizens right now.

With Biden as president and the Senate and Supreme Court in Republican hands, nothing at all good will come in areas that desperately need improvement, such as climate change, income inequality, etc. We are screwed.

Don midwest
Don midwest

dems plan for decades has been to win just over a majority, not to be agressive to reach out

not to fight hard on move to save the Supreme Court as a credible organization

didn’t fight during Obama’s term to get his nominee on the court and hold the republicans feet to the fire about the democracy

now their attempt to do what they always do, and to get just enough, have not shamed the republicans and driven them out of the system

Trump has set the country up for violence and the dems will blame us progressives and the crazy people

As Bruno Latour says, the loss of a common ground is a huge issue that has not yet been acknowledged.

Architects and designers are facing a new problem when they aspire to build for a habitable planet.1 They have to answer a new question, because what used to be a poor joke—“My dear fellow, you seem to live on another planet”—has become
literal—“Yes, we do intend to live on a different planet!” In the “old days” when
political scientists talked about geopolitics, they meant different nations with
opposing interests waging wars on the same material and geographic stage. Today,
geopolitics is also concerned with wars over the definition of the stage itself. A conflict will be called, from now on, “of planetary relevance” not because it has the planet for a stage, but because it is about which planet you are claiming to inhabit and defend.

I am starting from the premise that what I have called the New Climatic Regime
organizes all political affiliations.2 The climate question is not one aspect of politics among others, but that which defines the political order from beginning to end, forcing all of us to redefine the older questions of social justice along with those of identity, subsistence, and attachment to place. In recent years we have shifted from questions of ecology—nature remaining outside the social order—to questions of existential subsistence on threatened territories. Nature is no longer outside us but under our feet, and it shakes the ground. Just as at the beginning of modern political philosophy, in the time of Thomas Hobbes, we are dealing with humans not unified but divided by nature to the point that they are engaged in civil wars as violent as the religious wars of the past, and forced to look for peace by altogether reinventing the
social order.3 Climate mutation means that the question of the land on which we all stand has come back into focus, hence the general political disorientation, especially for the left, which did not expect to have to talk again of “people” and “soil”— questions mostly abandoned to the right.

Since it is impossible to tackle this sort of conflict head on, I will turn to fiction and take you on a brief tour of a planetarium of my invention. Whereas old planetary influences on our horoscopes have been thrown into doubt for quite some time, there is no question that the gravitational pulls of my seven hypothetical planets have an immense influence on the way you feel, the way you behave, and especially the way you predict your destiny. So, let’s visit a fictional astrology verging on serious geopolitics!

“We don’t seem to live on the same planet”
—A Fictional Planetarium
Bruno Latour

jcitybone

Yeah definitely Dems can improve, but progressives with good messages went down hard all over too. Sometimes, you have to put some blame on the voters as well. After all, this was Trump and his Republican Party they were voting for along with all that stands for. Very scary to me. I’m feeling very alienated with parts of our country.

phatkhat

LOL! You should try LIVING in this part of the country. Arkansas is solid red, again. Over 60% for Trump. I ain’t going anywhere today, because it’s too scary. Though the Libertarian black guy running against Tom Cotton got over 30%, which surprised me. I did vote for him.

I’ve felt alienated ever since we got back over here from Germany, but I suppose that’s a place that is changed, too, with all the neo-Nazis emboldened.

Nova Land
Nova Land

A key reason Marquita Bradshaw lost in Tennessee is because the Democratic Party in Tennessee did almost nothing to support her (or even to let people know she was the Democratic candidate for senate). I live in rural Tennessee, about halfway between Nashville and Knoxville. Not only did I not see a single yard sign or billboard for Bradshaw, I am the only person in my area that I’m aware of who even knew her name and that she was the Democratic senate candidate (or even that there was a Democratic senate candidate this year).

The Democratic Party does this repeatedly: writes off Tennessee (and other states they see as not worth wasting their time on), puts no effort into getting people to run for congressional seats in many parts of the state and then puts no effort into supporting candidates who do choose to run.

Not that long in the past, Tennessee regularly elected Democrats to the house and senate. Now that’s become something of a rarity, and a large reason for that is that Democrats decided Tennessee is a red state and as a result have managed to largely convert it into one.

polarbear4

also bc they like republicans better.

phatkhat

The DNC ARE Republicans.

phatkhat

Same here in Arkansas. (Howdy, neighbor!) When we moved here in 2004, it was largely blue. 2010 was the tipping point, and I think it’s when the “Southern Strategy” really sank in.

Dunno if you followed our Senate debacle, but the Dem dropped out just after the deadline for filing for “family” reasons, and the Dems did NOTHING to try to get someone else on the ballot. Which left only Ricky Harrington (L) up against Tom Cotton. As a result, Ricky Harrington won something like 32% of the vote, which may be a record for a Libertarian.

magsview

It might have been interesting if the massive $$$ spent on McGrath went to a decent candidate against Cotton. Instead he is emboldened.

phatkhat

I do think the 32% for a BLACK LIBERTARIAN in ARKANSAS is a pretty good indication that Tommy isn’t really all that well liked. Arkansas is nowhere near 30% black, so lots of white folks voted for him, too. Probably all the Dems.

phatkhat

The DNC et al do not support progressive candidates at all. They are on their own, and many of them are newcomers to the political scene. Like Cori Bush, they will do better next time around. I’d like to see some of them run for Congress instead of Senate, to get used to the process. My biggest disappointment, outside of Sanders, was Booker, of course.

But look. We DID elect some progressives, and some trans people and openly gay people. It wasn’t a TOTAL loss.

OzoneTom
OzoneTom

Cori Bush won with nearly 79% of the vote in MO-1, so that can definitely happen.

Don midwest
Don midwest

I have not read this article. It was on the respected feed justsecurity

An Analytic Framework for Assessing Risks of U.S. Post-Election Violence

posted yesterday

Today and the days ahead are the most consequential period for the United States in at least a generation. Many around the world are watching with us to see who we are and what our choice could mean for their own struggles for responsive and inclusive democracy. Many of us watching should be looking not only to see who wins, but to monitor the risk of post-election violence and take action to prevent it.

When I served as a senior analyst for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, I developed frameworks to evaluate the risk of election-related instability overseas. As a National Security Council staff member at the White House, I relied on similar tools to help prepare for and organize U.S. government support for nine elections in West Africa.

Evaluating the likelihood of violent conflict requires considering a variety of factors including the context, indicators of risk, potential triggers, and sources of resilience. The U.S. election is happening in a context defined by irresponsible political leadership, entrenched polarization, systemic racism and inequality, and concurrent health and economic crises that have brought into focus underlying risk factors for political violence. Despite these risks, the United States still has comparatively substantial resources and a long but deeply imperfect history of commitment to governing ideals that provide resilience.

The risk indicators below span five categories: political leader responses, perceptions of electoral and judicial legitimacy, armed actor use of force, public sentiment and media, and external influences. These variables interact and change, and they should therefore be considered together. They should also be used to identify potential triggering events that usually precede a turn to widespread violent conflict. For example, government security force abuses can be a trigger, and these indicators could help signal an elevated risk if the president directs federal forces to crack-down on protests over judicial action that a portion of the public views as illegitimate.

Don midwest
Don midwest

I signed up for Glenn’s substack, but didn’t join for $50 per year. Will now do that. He does excellent work. Article the other day about the biden son laptop which gives more information and Glenn’s sense of a story looks better and better that the establishment was actively suppressing the story before the election

Don midwest
Don midwest

i recall following the number of his twitter followers as it moved toward 1 million. I had not checked the number in some months because his tweets just come through to my 20+ followings

he now has 1.5 million followers

gained a lot of followers in his coverage of Brazil

wi64

Bernie would’ve done well for all these groups, Bernie would have went into R areas as well to listen to thier concerns as well.

Benny

Substack needs to have a price for its platform instead of $50 per writer for subscriptions.

Don midwest
Don midwest

free to join without all the postings

send email for new publication

I have not changed my status to paying subscriber

he posted an article already which is open to all

go here and sign up for free

https://greenwald.substack.com/

The article was sent to my email so I guess that it doesn’t have a direct link

The U.S. Inability To Count Votes is a National Disgrace. And Dangerous.
Nations far poorer and less technologically advanced have no problem holding quick, efficient elections. Distrust in U.S. outcomes is dangerous but rational.

The richest and most powerful country on earth — whether due to ineptitude, choice or some combination of both — has no ability to perform the simple task of counting votes in a minimally efficient or confidence-inspiring manner. As a result, the credibility of the voting process is severely impaired, and any residual authority the U.S. claims to “spread” democracy to lucky recipients of its benevolence around the world is close to obliterated.

At 7:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the day after the 2020 presidential elections, the results of the presidential race, as well as control of the Senate, are very much in doubt and in chaos. Watched by rest of the world — deeply affected by who rules the still-imperialist superpower — the U.S. struggles and stumbles and staggers to engage in a simple task mastered by countless other less powerful and poorer countries: counting votes. Some states are not expected to finished their vote-counting until the end of this week or beyond.

The same data and polling geniuses who pronounced that Hillary Clinton had a 90% or more of winning the 2016 election, and who spent the last three months proclaiming the 2020 election even more of a sure thing for the Democratic presidential candidate, are currently insisting that Biden, despite being behind in numerous key states, is still the favorite by virtue of uncounted ballots in Democrat-heavy counties in the outcome-determinative states. [One went to sleep last night with the now-notorious New York Times needle of data guru Nate Cohn assuring the country that, with more than 80% of the vote counted in Georgia, Trump had more than an 80% chance to win that state, only to wake up a few hours later with the needle now predicting the opposite outcome; that all happened just a few hours after Cohn assured everyone how much “smarter” his little needle was this time around].

Benny

It’s free for the first articles, but after a month, they want to charge you.

Taibbi, Sirota, Greenwald are all good writers. But $150 is a bit steep. Just MHO.

phatkhat

Does he have a monthly option like CounterPunch? I don’t have $50 right now. Freight’s slow.

jcitybone

Biden should be the favorite to win PA

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/biden-pennsylvania-election-ballots.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=ReporterUpdates

President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.

So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.

If Mr. Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that Mr. Biden will win the remaining absentee vote by quite so much. But so far, his standing in the tabulated absentee vote has almost exactly matched our pre-election projections for the absentee vote by county, based on New York Times/Siena polling and data from L2, a political data vendor.

If anything, the pre-election estimates suggest that Mr. Biden might be expected to do better, because the areas with remaining absentee votes are ever so slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole.

And there are possible if still uncertain sources of additional strength for Mr. Biden, like absentee ballots that arrive in the days after the election — or the possibility that the count is not yet including ballots that were left in drop boxes on the day of the election.

Mr. Trump has few places to turn for votes. His strength in the Election Day vote, which he carried by a wide margin, is all but exhausted, according to our estimates of the vote remaining. Most of the Election Day vote that remains is in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

Benny

I’m not confident.

OzoneTom
OzoneTom

There are many mail-in ballots to count and those should favor Biden significantly.

If Biden gets PA then President Trump is done for.

wi64

I fail to understand Americans, I really do. They have a president that’s a liar, cheat and a fraud(those are his good points) and they still vote for him. It must be like being in an abusive relationship and wont leave.

Paul ADK
Paul ADK

The ignorant like autocracy. It sure beats finding your way out in the big scary world, and actually taking some responsibility for yourself.

We need to get public education in this country restored and mandated. No democracy can survive like this.

Benny

Many of them believe Trump followed through on his promises.

jcitybone

And like it or not, many are racists and xenophobes. It’s a big part of what Trump is selling.

polarbear4

you’re right, of course, that Trump is nasty and horrible, but both sides are pretty abusive and one pretends he gives them tax cuts and gives them hope that their efforts at making it as an “American individual” will bear fruit.

And that whole ethos–that if we just have fewer regulations, fewer unions, more grit, more traditional family, bolstering us–if we just have all this, surely we will succeed–that ethos is poured into our veins by both parties and a relentless media that makes sure we don’t worry our pretty little heads about climate chaos, about people literally dying right and left, that made sure to demean and belittle the campaign that unabashedly cared about these things.

i do not want another 4 years of Trump, but just sayin’.

how are you doing, btw? :O) hug

jcitybone

Yeah I’m ok. Relieved that Biden seems to have won to get rid of Trump. Very disappointed about the likely loss of the Senate (meaning no Bernie Committee Chair), and the wipeout of progressive challengers everywhere.

Benny

We did make some progress in the primaries, which for some, were their general elections: ie Bowman, Bush, Jones, etc.

phatkhat

And don’t forget how religion reinforces all that hoo-ha.

jcitybone

jcitybone