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jcitybone

I actually wouldn’t call it surging either—more like rising, which is just fine right now. My problem is that most don’t even say that and ignore that Warren has been going down lately. Also they have no problem with Buttigieg “surging” when he’s really stuck in single digits everywhere but white Iowa where he has been spending much more money than anyone else.

Also I like to hear that Bernie has a bump in any poll. The last Monmouth poll in September is the one that had Warren leading 28 to Biden’s 25 with Bernie at 15.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/469143-sanders-team-accuses-media-of-ignoring-surge-in-polls

Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign is accusing the media of ignoring his “surge” in the polls as the Vermont independent looks to stage a comeback.

Sanders has jumped in new surveys of New Hampshire, with the latest CNN–University of New Hampshire poll finding him with the lead in the Granite State, which he won with 60 percent of the vote in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. Sanders has also seen a small bump in some national polls and surveys of Iowa, although he does not lead anywhere else.

The Sanders campaign is fuming at the media, alleging the political press is playing favorites, particularly with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), who for weeks have won headlines about how their campaigns are rising in the stretch run to Iowa.

In the past month, Warren has slid in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls off a high of 27 percent down to 20.6 percent currently, only 4 points ahead of Sanders, as she has faced tougher media scrutiny and questions about her “Medicare for All” plan.

Sanders has seized on the opening to draw contrasts between himself and Warren on health care.

“I think that [Warren’s plan] would probably have a very negative impact on creating those jobs, or providing wages, increased wages and benefits for those workers,” Sanders told ABC News over the weekend.

“I wouldn’t use the term ‘surging’ [for Sanders] but I’ve got a national poll coming out … that suggests there could be a small bump,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “However, the overarching finding is uncertainty in the entire field, which is why all the polls have very different results right now.”

Sanders’s allies, meanwhile, say the media’s “Bernie blackout” is real and that their supporters feed off the notion that they’re being written off by the establishment and political press.

“Generally speaking, media folks don’t bother to read and don’t care or understand policy, so you then have talking heads on cable news blathering on about nonsense,” said Jonathan Tasini, a progressive strategist and Sanders supporter.

“That ignorance then feeds a bias against truly revolutionary ideas because, as an example, most college-educated media folks took an Economics 101 class which told them how wonderful the ‘free market’ and ‘free trade’ are, so they are hard-wired to oppose Bernie’s basic philosophy,” he said.

jcitybone

Here’s an example of Warren “surging“. Bernie has 28, Warren 22, and Biden 16 in this Mid-October poll. Their last poll was March, which had Bernie 31, Biden 20, and Warren 4. Yes obviously Warren has come a long way since then, but this tells us nothing about what’s been going on lately. For all we know she could have gone all the way up to 25 in September and is now receding.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-11-05/elizabeth-warren-surges-among-young-voters

A new poll of young voters finds that Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is gaining quickly on the Vermont senator in the Democratic primary race, challenging Sanders among a voter demographic he dominated in 2016.

polarbear4

how does he fume, i wonder? ?

jcitybone

https://forward.com/opinion/434275/bernie-sanders-is-the-only-presidential-candidate-who-truly-cares-about/

Sanders clearly understands that the problem is the “inhumane, unacceptable and unsustainable” status quo, which takes a toll on both Israeli and Palestinian lives. The current blockade of Gaza perpetuates a vicious circle of hate and violence on both sides of the fence, that could go from bad to untenable in a matter of months. The changes we need are urgent.

Sanders’s position uniquely reflects compassion and solidarity with Gaza — something that is critically needed, yet virtually unseen amongst the other Democratic candidates. But he also expressed a desire to make Gaza more livable, a message which demonstrates great care for Israeli lives as well; this care comes from a deep understanding that the blockade disempowers everyone except militants and proponents of violence.

jcitybone

Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale.

https://truthout.org/articles/biden-has-defended-us-allies-use-of-lethal-force-against-civilians/

The Bush administration condemned the Israeli government’s policy of extra-judicial killings, which a report from the United Nations noted “are grave breaches of the Fourth Geneva Convention, Article 147, and of international humanitarian law.”

On Capitol Hill, however, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee defended Israel’s use of these assassination squads, saying, “I don’t believe this is a policy of assassinations” since “there is [in] effect a declared war.”

His name was Joe Biden, a senator from Delaware, future vice president and currently a leading contender for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

A look at Biden’s Senate career has shown repeated occasions in which he has co-sponsored resolutions and issued statements defending Israeli attacks against civilian targets in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and Lebanon as legitimate self-defense. Biden has defended Israel despite well-documented reports by human rights groups that Israel had engaged in serious war crimes.

jcitybone

https://slate.com/business/2019/11/elizabeth-warrens-health-care-medicare-for-all-single-payer-unfair.html

It also has some problems.

One, as I wrote Friday, is that its budget assumptions might not be very realistic.

Another, deeper issue—which a number of writers, not to mention Warren’s primary rival Bernie Sanders, have pointed out—is that the centerpiece of her proposal is fundamentally unfair to many businesses and workers. It’s specifically a raw deal for companies that already offer their employees generous insurance, as well as for low-wage workers, who would somewhat indirectly shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden from the tax scheme she has concocted.

But that leaves another issue: Even when it’s fully phased in, Warren’s plan is still pretty unfair to low-wage workers.

As Matt Bruenig of the People’s Policy Project has explained, Warren’s Medicare fee is basically a “head tax,” meaning that companies pay the same amount for each worker. Starbucks would send Washington $19,600 for its barista and $19,600 for its CEO. What this means is that low-wage workers see a much, much larger share of their potential compensation devoured by health care costs than high earners. It also warps the job market by making low-wage labor relatively more expensive for companies to hire, which makes it harder for some people to find work. With a health care head tax, you’re basically doubling the cost of hiring a dishwasher.

This is, unfortunately, more or less how our current employer-based insurance system works, since private insurance premiums aren’t really connected to what workers earn. Warren isn’t creating new problems so much as replicating ones that already exist. But almost no economist would structure things that way if they were starting a system from scratch. That’s not just me talking by the way; the Berkeley economists Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez, who have advised Warren on her wealth tax proposals, said the same in their recent book. “No government would out of the blue impose a poll tax to fund health care; it would be a crushing burden on moderate income families,” they write. (A “poll tax” is their very euro term for a head tax.)

Sanders has tried to make hay of this. He’s pointed out that his payroll-tax approach is more progressive, which is true—faced only with a 7.5 percent levy, a Starbucks barista would pay much less for health care under Sanders’ system than the CEO would. And Sanders’ approach isn’t just more economically equitable: It might also make more plain economic sense, since it wouldn’t make low-skill workers vastly more expensive to hire.

orlbucfan

Sounds like Liz’s plan is similar to a flat tax which the rich FRighties and craporate white collar crooks love. Just another GOPuke Lite scam. T and R, LD!!

jcitybone

Meanwhile, war has broken out at DK between Warren and Biden supporters over the candidates’ latest statements. Basically “Warren is a condescending, out-of-touch elitist” and “Biden is running in the wrong primary”. It’s nice to be on the sidelines for this slugfest. 🍿🍿🍿

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/5/1897466/-Biden-attacks-Warren-calls-her-elitist-and-condescending?utm_campaign=trending

jcitybone

From BERN notice

After portraying his reelection campaign an explicit crusade against Bernie and the working-class agenda fueling Bernie’s campaign, GOP Gov. Matt Bevin said he felt “confident” he’d win by 6 to 10 points in the Republican-leaning state of Kentucky.

Instead, by the end of election night, Bevin was down, and both Kentucky’s Secretary of State and NBC News declared that Bevin lost the race.

Whatever happens with the final results (Bevin has not conceded), the fact that Kentucky’s election was even close is a fantastic sign for the 2020 election and Bernie’s campaign. It shows that GOP attacks on Bernie and his agenda are likely to backfire — even in traditionally Republican states.

Remember: Bernie visited Kentucky in August to rally pressure against Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, and to express support for teachers who staged huge protests against Bevin.

In response, Bevin used the Bernie event to record a video casting his reelection campaign as a crusade against Bernie and “his hateful class warfare.” Bevin asked Kentucky voters: “Which side are you on?”

They responded tonight — with a very encouraging sign for the Bernie campaign and the working-class movement that will defeat Trump in 2020.

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jcitybone

I think this looks good for Boudin (backed by Bernie). Late arriving mail-in votes on the West Coast tend to come from younger, more progressive voters. Here’s an example though of ranked choice hurting the more progressive candidate.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Loftus-leads-Boudin-Tung-for-San-Francisco-14812809.php

Interim District Attorney Suzy Loftus led Chesa Boudin by a scant 240 votes early Wednesday morning in the tight race to become San Francisco’s top prosecutor in an election that offered dueling visions for the city’s criminal justice system.

Boudin, an attorney in the public defender’s office, was leading Loftus in first-place votes, 32.9% to 30.9%. But when the city’s ranked-choice voting was tabulated, Loftus garnered more second- and third-place votes and pulled ahead, 50.13% to 49.87%.

All of the city’s precincts had reported, but more vote-by-mail ballots were to left to count. It could be days before a winner emerges.

polarbear4

thanks. i’ve been a ranked choice advocate, but will have to learn more.

Torabs
Torabs

On pins and needles for this race!

RCV has complicated side effects, and we’ll have to see how this all plays out. I’m not ready to blame the system, but the uncertainty and delay it brings can be frustrating. I’m very surprised that Tung and Dautch got as many votes as they did – their supporters may end up deciding this thing.

polarbear4

San Franciscans may be reevaluating how they cast their votes in the new RCV system, as well.

jcitybone

She was behind by 7% last time so she still has a chance. It looks like the progressive majority will stand in any case thwarting Amazon big cash manipulation.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/incumbents-herbold-and-juarez-lead-sawant-trails-in-tuesdays-seattle-city-council-election-results/

Lisa Herbold was ahead with 51% against Phillip Tavel and Debora Juarez was up with 57% against Ann Davison Sattler, while Sawant was behind with 46% against Egan Orion.

Many more ballots will be counted in coming days and more progressive candidates tend to gain ground as additional votes are tallied, so Sawant may be able to close the gap in her contest.

Two of three incumbent Seattle City Council members were positioned to win reelection to their district seats in Tuesday night results, but socialist Kshama Sawant was trailing in her race against a business-backed challenger.

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/11/05/41904031/general-election-night-2019-seattles-socialist-uprising-or-hostile-corporate-takeover

The playlist shifted from a buoyant Prince in “Party Like It’s 1999” to Kendrick Lamar singing “we gon’ be alright,” the reassurance anthem of the 2010s, right as results came in with Sawant trailing Orion 45.6% to 53.99%.

Nervous red-shirted Sawant fans raced to reassure each other that yes, they’re going to be alright: “That’s really close.” “We’re chasing ballots.” A raven-haired man in eyeliner wearing a Goths for Bernie t-shirt and sporting a man purse emblazoned with the hammer and sickle turned to the SECB. “I feel really good,” this dark lord of political science said. “She was down more than that against Conlin.”

Indeed, that was Kshama’s message. “Those of you were here in 2013 will remember what happened,” she said, taking the stage after the customary playing of The Internationale. For those who weren’t here in 2013: She came from behind with late returns to upset incumbent Richard Conlin.

During a 30-minute speech that quoted Karl Marx and Rosa Luxemburg, Sawant highlighted worker struggles around the world and insisted that a grassroots movement will be needed to propel Bernie Sanders into the White House and support bold ideas like Medicare for All. But she reserved her strongest words for this hard-fought local election.

“We faced an onslaught of corporate cash,” she said. “If anything we underestimated the brazenness of Bezos, corporate real estate, and big business.”

The Sawant campaign raised an impressive $540,000 through individual donations that averaged $20. They also claim to have knocked on 200,000 doors.

Sawant’s biggest applause line of the night: “It is not about inviting the billionaires to the table because for God’s sakes they own the whole goddamn table.”

But as for winning the election? Sawant’s office has calculated they need a minimum of 46.7% from the first returns to be in a comfortable position. They are 1.1% shy of that figure tonight, which does not bode well.

EyeRound
EyeRound

I would be really disappointed to see Sawant lose her seat on the Seattle City Council.

Firstly, because she was a staunch and articulate Bernie supporter in 2016, and she’s done a lot to improve working class lives in the city.

Secondly, because it would mean that money can still buy elections in Seattle. The trend nationally is that money alone doesn’t buy elections, but Seattle. . .?

Does anyone know anything about whether or how LGBTQ issues may have played a role in this vote?

jcitybone

She hasn’t lost her seat yet. Washington is a mail-in state and plenty of ballots haven’t been counted. These ballots always skew more progressive. Last race she was behind 7% initially but still won. Right now, she’s behind by 8% so it might be difficult but it’s not over.
Fingers crossed!

orlbucfan

Any of the other winners have the cajones to take on Bozo Buc$o Bezos? I hate those creeps. Plus, he looks like a moron with that shaved head.

EyeRound
EyeRound

? Me too! Thanks JCB!

polarbear4

???