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Aint Supposed to Die A Natural Death
Aint Supposed to Die A Natural Death

I’ll start off the comments with a thanks to you mags for getting us started. I’m unable to sleep and feeling anxious too. Michael Moore just signed off so I decided to check here to see who was up. Morning mags. 😊

Paul ADK
Paul ADK

Next he’ll try to sue the American people, for not voting for him.

orlbucfan

T and R, mags!! ☮️😊👍 Wearing one of my Bernie shirts today.🗽🇺🇸✊ Hubster has the tube on so am hearing the latest. GA and AZ are surprises. Floridumb? Nope.💩

Don midwest
Don midwest

Nathan Robinson writes another important column

The 2020 Election Result Completely Discredits The Democratic Leadership
They do not know how to take on the Republicans effectively, and if they are not replaced, the party is doomed.

It was truly shocking to see many Democrats learn absolutely nothing from 2016. I tend to be politically cynical, but to see none of the lessons learned was remarkable. The central points that I and others on the left have been emphasizing over and over since that election were:

1. Donald Trump will not destroy himself. You cannot rely on his badness to be your main argument. Many people like Trump, as hard as this may be to believe.

2. You have to be able to inspire people with a bold agenda and a clear message that gives them a reason to vote for you.

3. Corporate Democrats are weak, corrupt, and not well-liked. We must have a populist Democratic Party that is willing to take on Wall Street and the insurance industry.

4. The fact that you think Trump shouldn’t do well doesn’t mean he won’t do well. Polls can be deceptive. Do not count your chickens before they hatch. Complacency kills.

orlbucfan

He is absolutely correct. I enjoy his reads. Robinson knows how to compose whole sentences. 😊 Unfortunately, the DNC/GOPuke Lite will do nothing. Didn’t Botox Nancy win re-election? When’s Schumer up for re-election? They both need to be kicked out of office hard! Plus, that rancid POS DWS won in So. FL yet again. We desperately need a legit third party. The Greens don’t cut it!

wi62

Part of the Neolib establishment is this. Trumpcorp attracted more working class POC than ever. Some POC are sick of waiting for the Dems to deliver on what they promised during an election. So I figure they gave trumpcorp a shot as they have nothing to lose..

phatkhat
phatkhat

This is a good read, too, about how they screw up. From WSWS
2020 election results explode the identity politics narrative

I’m finding WS more in line with my personal politics than DSA. May switch. I did some personality test a while back, that showed who you were close to politically, from authoritarian/libertarian to left/right on a quad graph. I ended up being closest to Goldman and Kropotkin. Never really thought of myself as an anarchist, but if the shoe fits… I know I really buck authority, but just thought I had ODD in addition to ADD. I think Orl might be down there with me!

orlbucfan

I’m a lifelong Progressive Futurist, phatkhat.😊☮️ I guess the closest definition would be a type of visionary Democratic Socialist. I am all for Progressive Taxation. I have no fight with someone who makes it big as long as their greed is checked, and doesn’t hurt the planet and the rest of us humans. The only reason I registered as a Democrat is cos of FL closed primaries. I guess iI am a bit of a political weirdo.😂😊

wi62

Describes me as well, except I can maintain my indie status in WI. Billionaires/corporation are like the 2nd Amend. they need to be well regulated 🙂 So i’m in the political weirdo club as well

Don midwest
Don midwest

Hey, I did better

There were at first 3 tweets

I started with the second one which is on the bottom

Then I realized there was a twitter stream

I then went to the first one and put it in the comment at the top of the list

and the final came out with only 4 of the 5 tweets without all the repeats that are usually when trying to put a twitter stream/list/ bunch of tweets

polarbear4

congrats! i struggle with that, too. half the time, i want the original tweet for context and i don’t get it. the other half, i get too many. lol

phatkhat
phatkhat

She sounds like she is positioning herself for furthering her political career to me.

jcitybone

This is for PB

Riddle me this: we have two midwestern neighboring states that are fairly similar. Minnesota has a Dem governor and a divided legislature. Wisconsin has a Dem governor now, but had a rabidly partisan Republican governor until 2018 and still has a rabidly partisan Republican legislature. Minnesota’s Supreme Court was mostly appointed by Dem governors. The Wisconsin Supreme Court majority is made up of right wing elected Republicans.

Results of this election:
Minnesota: Biden +6.9
Wisconsin: Biden +.6

Polling average this election
Minnesota: Biden +9.2
Wisconsin: Biden +8.4

Results last election
Minnesota: Clinton +1.5
Wisconsin: Clinton -.8

Wisconsin is a little to the right of Minnesota, but 6 points? Why was polling in Minnesota not that far off, but polling in Wisconsin off the charts bad? Why were the Minnesota and Wisconsin results close last time but not this time?

Just how can this be explained?

jcitybone

I looked at Michigan too, and it came out in the middle but results leaning to what happened in Wisconsin. Similar story to Wisconsin, but maybe not so rabid Republicans. New Dem governor, Republican legislature, and Republican Court (which just flipped)

Results there were:

2020 Biden +2.6
Polling Biden +7.9
2016 Clinton -.2

Another example from completely red Ohio

2020 Biden -8.1
Polling Biden -.8
2016 Clinton -8.1

One caveat here is that the late vote this year might shift Ohio to Biden by a few points.

So the only midwestern state that does not seem to have lying voters or shy Trumpers is non Republican run Minnesota.

Also Western swing states that have all or mostly mail in appear to be much closer to their polling averages. When the final margins come out for Arizona and Nevada I will take a look.

One explanation for discrepancies are shy Trump voters or lying Trump voters. But why do they lie much more in Republican run states than in Dem run states or all mail in states?

Aint Supposed to Die A Natural Death
Aint Supposed to Die A Natural Death

Good questions. Good research.

orlbucfan

👍

jcitybone

One more example from all mail in Colorado, which has graduated from swing state to blue but there are still plenty of areas (like Colorado Springs) where these lying shy Trump voters should abound

2020 Biden +13
Polling Biden +12.5

polarbear4

i figured mail was still pretty safe–i know you can hack optical scanners, but i think they are a lot harder. Or maybe it’s just that our attention has never turned to them.

Looks like Colorado Springs is sick of Trump–i always said the real military was sick of him, fwiw.

If by some miracle, we find out some day that no one messes with vote tabulations, I’ll be ecstatic!

Until then, i guess i should quit blaming the poor little machines and start looking into who, exactly owns them. I remember reading about a group based in Venezuela that was tied in more with Dems that acquired one of the big companies. But like all things corporate, it seems the Republicans do have the edge.

phatkhat
phatkhat

The AF Military Academy is at Colo Spgs, but they are a bunch of fundagelical raving lunatics. Like most of the city. Maybe there has been an influx of outsiders if the Springs went for Biden…

phatkhat
phatkhat

Yeah, Colo Spgs is the Western extension of the Bible Belt.

Paul ADK
Paul ADK

Militias who want to kidnap the governor and put her on “trial” are fairly rabid.

And probably not polled, so much.

Pollsters need to go deeper into the lunatic fringe, apparently.

Paul ADK
Paul ADK

I know I don’t answer the phone for anyone I don’t know. I have a feeling I’m not alone.

phatkhat
phatkhat

Nope. I only have a cell – no landline. Everyone who calls me on anything like a regular basis has their own ringtone. Generic ringtones don’t get answered. If it’s important, they can leave a VM. Been deluged with calls and texts from candidates and PACs, and I just don’t want to listen to them.

polarbear4

my phone has a feature that is it doesn’t recognize the number, it doesn’t ring. i still can see it in recents or voicemail. sometimes it’s a pain when i have to remember how to turn it off so i can get a call from a nurse or something but mostly i love it. so helpful when nannying.

jcitybone

There are big parts of Minnesota and Colorado that are right wing rabid and part of the lunatic fringe. How did they get polled so much better?

Believe me I do not want there to be voting shenanigans, but these big polling discrepancies between in person voting states run by Republicans and those run by Dems or that have mail in need to be examined

jcitybone

Another Midwestern example-non-swing Dem run Illinois

Note though that there is still more than 10% of the vote not yet counted (mail in ballots), which will skew heavily Dem, so that Biden lead will go up at least a few points

2020 Biden +12.1
Polling Biden +16

There does seem to be some swing to Trump right at the end from the 8.4 Biden national polling average lead, but the unprecedented in history 4 point swing seems to have been driven by certain states with off the charts swing.

jcitybone

Florida

State with in person voting and run by Republicans

2020. Biden -3.4
Polling Biden +2.5

Significant 6 point discrepancy

jcitybone

Here are the rest of the southern swing states

All red Ga
2020 Biden +.1
Polling Biden +1.2

All red TX
2020 Biden -5.8
Polling Biden -1.1

Divided NC
2020 Biden -1.4
Polling Biden 1.8

Texas polling was off close to 5 points, which is significant. Not as bad as some other states though

Right now NC polling is off by about 3, which is in the outer range of acceptable outcomes. That probably will go down when Biden gets closer in the late counted votes.

Georgia is definitely the anomaly—a red controlled state that had a small discrepancy. No proof of anything, but shenanigans can be overcome by super Dem turnout.

I will look at PA when voting is complete

polarbear4

Thanks for all this, jcb! Your research is truly awe inspiring! :O)

polarbear4

Florida is famous for yuge discrepancies. A guy got caught there, but he was “only” changing registration info.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8890191/Florida-man-arrested-changing-Gov-Ron-DeSantis-voter-registration-address.html

polarbear4

yes, great questions and research.

i’ve been starting to think that who controls what may not matter as much as i thought. if officials generally believe in their cognitive dissonance that machines are generally safe and true, and they seem to believe that–the thought that the machines might not be trustworthy brings into mind too much of a voting nightmare for them–then they probably don’t look under the hood much.

if that is the case, and with increasing abilities to remotely hack anything, it would be the actual owners of the machines contracting the work out–but who knows how often you would need to set it up.

I guess if I’m serious about all this, I’d better read a lot more of what Jenny Cohn has to say, as well as the older guys who have been on this for a while–Bob Fitrakis, Harvey Wasserman, Greg Palast and others.

https://columbusfreepress.com/article/it-doesnt-take-russian-hack-american-election

It’s time consuming, and I’m not sure when I will do it, but you’ve inspired me to dive a little deeper and see if everyone looking into this has found more of substance. Obviously, the less we know, the better for the machine people. lol

A more fruitful use of my time than twitter, lol. but work! :O)

https://fitrakis.org/bob-and-greg-palast-in-ohio-speaking-about-election-and-security/

Apparently, even Harry Reid believes it. (why they created the Shadow app lol)

In August 2016, according to David Shimer’s book Rigged, “the U.S. Intelligence community had reported that Russian hackers could edit actual vote tallies, according to four of Obama’s senior advisors.” But the only government official who publicly alluded to this possibility was then Senate minority leader Harry Reid. On August 29, 2016, Reid published a letter he’d sent to then FBI director James Comey in which he said the threat of Russian interference “is more extensive than is widely known and may include the intent to falsify official election results.”

Reid has said that he believes vote tallies were changed in 2016.

https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2020/10/31/how-safe-is-the-us-election-from-hacking/

Don midwest
Don midwest

NYCVG

From your mouth, Ryan Goodman, to god’s ears.

Benny

Benny

No.

orlbucfan

Really?

polarbear4

might actually be better than Hakeem. she’s grooming him. If they are successful, and corporations do truly control everything, including the vote, by 2024, well, i just hope the younguns and the climate are enough to throw rocks into the machine.

Benny

Benny

orlbucfan

Great tune.😊👍

polarbear4

if only he had the integrity of JFK. i know he was far from perfect, but he did see the people and the corporations and knew that people needed real help.

phatkhat
phatkhat

What mandate? The number of votes? Um, did Trump not ALSO get more votes than JFK – or Obama, for that matter. Didn’t flip the senate, and lost seats in the house. Biden won on not being Trump. Yep, great mandate.

charliehorse
charliehorse

So does that mean we should expect more policy accomplishments from Biden than JFK?

jcitybone

Probably policy wise they are the same. But Pelosi is so demonized by the Republicans, she’s actually bad news in moderate districts.

orlbucfan

Shows you yet again how politically stupid a lot of Americans are.

LieparDestin

LieparDestin

No article on hand but Ive already seen reports of Trump running again in 2024, should he actually step down.

NYCVG

If he thinks the media will cover him the way they did in 2015-2016, he needs to think again. His own sources may tune in 24/7 but the larger world will have moved on.

phatkhat
phatkhat

For those of us who live in the middle of these people, it is terrifying. We do not display our political views at all, because it is dangerous. I asked the DSA to NOT send me anything in the mail, but the DNC keeps sending me junk.