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The Post’s analysis is based on a data set it built from emissions figures countries reported to the United Nations in a variety of formats. To overcome the problem of missing years of data, reporters used a statistical model to estimate the emissions each country would have reported in 2019, then compared that total to other scientific data sets measuring global greenhouse gases.

[Measuring the Invisible: How The Post did its global emissions analysis]

The analysis found at least 59 percent of the gap stems from how countries account for emissions from land, a unique sector in that it can both help and harm the climate. Land can draw in carbon as plants grow and soils store it away — or it can all go back up into the atmosphere as forests are logged or burn and as peat-rich bogs are drained and start to emit large amounts of carbon dioxide.

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A key area of controversy is that many countries attempt to offset the emissions from burning fossil fuels by claiming that carbon is absorbed by land within their borders. U.N. rules allow countries, such as China, Russia and the United States, each to subtract more than half a billion tons of annual emissions in this manner, and in the future could allow these and other countries to continue to release significant emissions while claiming to be “net zero.”

In other words, much of the gap is driven by subtractions countries have made on their balance sheets. Many scientists say countries should only claim these greenhouse gas reductions when they take clear action, as opposed to claiming natural forest regrowth unrelated to national policies.

And some of this carbon absorption isn’t even happening — or at least not on the scale that countries assert.

Malaysia, for example, released 422 million tons of greenhouse gases in 2016, placing it among the world’s top 25 emitters that year, according to data compiled by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. But because Malaysia claims its trees are consuming vast amounts of CO2, its reported emissions to the United Nations are just 81 million tons, less than those of the small European nation of Belgium.

In Sarawak, nearly 4,000 square miles of peatlands have been drained in recent decades to make way for plantations for palm oil, commonly used in products ranging from biofuels to processed foods, soaps, and makeup.
In Sarawak, nearly 4,000 square miles of peatlands have been drained in recent decades to make way for plantations for palm oil, commonly used in products ranging from biofuels to processed foods, soaps, and makeup.
About this series

The world has pledged to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades, but a Washington Post investigation has found the data underlying those pledges is inaccurate. In the second installment of our series, Invisible, The Post uncovered a vast gap between country emission reports and what scientists say is being emitted into the atmosphere.
The Post found that methane emissions comprise a second major portion of the missing greenhouse gases in the U.N. database. Independent scientific data sets show between 57 million and 76 million tons more of human-caused methane emissions hitting the atmosphere than U.N. country reports do. That converts to between 1.6 billion and 2.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions.

Scientific research indicates that countries are undercounting methane of all kinds: in the oil and gas sector, where it leaks from pipelines and other sources; in agriculture, where it wafts upward from the burps and waste of cows and other ruminant animals; and in human waste, where landfills are a major source.

European Union officials estimate that rapid reductions in methane could trim at least 0.2 degrees Celsius from overall global temperature rise by 2050. More than 100 nations have now signed onto the newly formed Global Methane Pledge, an initiative launched by the United States and the E.U., which aims to cut emissions 30 percent by the end of the decade. But some of the world’s biggest methane emitters, including China and Russia, have yet to join to pact.

President Biden told delegates meeting in Glasgow that cutting methane emissions is essential to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

“One of the most important things we can do in this decisive decade — to keep 1.5 degrees in reach — is reduce our methane emissions as quickly as possible,” Biden said.

The Post found that countries around the world are underreporting their greenhouse gas emissions, and that true emissions are likely 16 to 23 percent higher.
A new generation of sophisticated satellites that can measure greenhouse gases are now orbiting Earth, and they can detect massive emissions leaks. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) lists Russia as the world’s top oil and gas methane emitter, but that’s not what Russia reports to the United Nations. Its official numbers fall millions of tons shy of what independent scientific analyses show, a Post investigation found. Many oil and gas producers in the Persian Gulf region, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, also report very small levels of oil and gas methane emission that don’t line up with other scientific data sets.

“It’s hard to imagine how policymakers are going to pursue ambitious climate actions if they’re not getting the right data from national governments on how big the problem is,” said Glenn Hurowitz, chief executive of Mighty Earth, an environmental advocacy group.

Meanwhile, fluorinated gases, which are exclusively human-made, also are underreported significantly. Known as “F-gases,” they are used in air conditioning, refrigeration and the electricity industry. But The Post found that dozens of countries don’t report these emissions at all — a major shortcoming since some of these potent greenhouse gases are a growing part of the world’s climate problem.

When you let business try to regulate the government, they will always find ways not to comply.

Ever wonder why it’s so difficult to pass climate legislation? Here is a DISGUSTING list of the Dems & Republicans guilty of investing in the fossil fuel industry.@Sen_JoeManchin was found to have multi-MILLION-dollar investments. #EndFossilFuelSubsidieshttps://t.co/UAwroMpsaQ

— Our Revolution (@OurRevolution) November 8, 2021

In the better news category..

Georgia Democrats FLIPPED 41 seats in 21 counties across Georgia on Tuesday. Has anyone heard the media mention this?

— MeidasTouch.com (@MeidasTouch) November 8, 2021

Imagine if AOC had said this instead of Hawley. The outrage from the right, including people like Tim Pool and Joe Rogan, would be crazy. https://t.co/AcT71zn2R7

— David Doel (@daviddoel) November 8, 2021

When Cori Bush, AOC, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib and Jamaal Bowman voted No last week, it wasn't just good tactics.

It was good politics, for the whole party. https://t.co/uWSS8dvQiU

— Bill Neidhardt (@BNeidhardt) November 8, 2021

This is a joke.

— Benny🌹 (@Benny06) November 8, 2021