HomeUncategorized11/9-10 Midterms Roundup & Open Thread
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orlbucfan

For 15 months, the White House refused to act on Biden’s #Cuba campaign promises due in part to the supplications of fearful Florida Dems who can’t find Hialeah without using Waze.

Thousands of Cuban families on both sides of the Straits paid the price.

All for nothing.
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This is a simmering problem with the Hispanic vote in this state. The old rich Hispanics are basically RW. The younger ones born here are not. It’s a class deal cos the wealthy can immigrate w/no problem. The other classes? Not so easy, and the poor ones are politically exploited by the FRighties. One of the good things PBO did was opening back up Cuban relations, and getting rid of sanctions. SloMoJoe needs to get going on it. Anywho, T and R x 2, Ms. Benny!! 🙂 I’m still euphoric over Frost and Eskamani. I’ve met her twice now @ the annual Vegan Fest. 🙂

Benny
Benny

The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections

In the closing days of the 2022 campaign, Republicans were in a bullish mood. They believed that after a difficult summer, the momentum of the midterm elections had swung decisively in their direction.

Election night proved to be more problematic. The vaunted red wave never hit the shore.

Republicans remained confident that when all the results were tallied, they would control the House, though likely by a margin that would fall short of their projections. The Senate, meanwhile, was turning out as predicted, with control in the balance and a handful of seats not called and not likely to be for days.

The pattern for the night was set relatively early, as seats Republicans thought they would flip were agonizingly close and some went against their expectations. One was in Virginia, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) was reelected; another was in Rhode Island, where Seth Magaziner (D) prevailed. Other races Republicans had expressed confidence in winning were turning out to be more competitive than thought.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker were locked in a tight race in Georgia on Nov. 8 as officials continued to count ballots. (Video: The Washington Post)
Candidate quality also appeared to be a problem for Republicans. In the Georgia Senate race, Democratic incumbent Raphael G. Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker were in a virtual tie all evening. Walker, whose troubled past had dogged him throughout the election, was running several points behind Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who easily won his reelection over Democrat Stacey Abrams. And in Pennsylvania, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) was projected to win a hard-fought race for an open Senate seat.

Midterm elections are always a referendum on the president. Try as Biden did to make it a choice between his leadership and that of former president Donald Trump and what he labeled the “MAGA Republicans,” it was in fact more of a referendum on the incumbent administration than anything else. But this has been an unusual election year, one in which some of the normal rules have not applied. If it was a referendum on Biden, it was also a referendum on the Republicans and America itself.

It was the first balloting since rioters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to aid Trump in his quest to overturn the 2020 election results and remain in power. It also was the first election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion that had stood for half a century. And it was the first campaign in which the label “election deniers” was applied to hundreds of candidates around the country — all of them running as Republicans.

For over a decade, change has been the constant in America’s congressional elections, a seemingly never-ending struggle for power in a closely and deeply divided nation. Through these years, congressional elections have turned on anger and dissatisfaction more than on hope and optimism. This year was President Biden’s and the Democrats’ time to feel the voters’ discontent — and the unhappiness was widespread, even as Democrats in some hotly contested races were holding on.

About 7 in 10 voters in these midterm elections said they were either angry or dissatisfied with the state of the country, and slightly more said the country was heading in the wrong direction, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research. About 1 in 3 cited inflation as the most important issue in their vote.

As the first waves of votes were coming in from states around the country, nothing appeared likely to change the prevailing pattern of constant change — in this case putting Republicans on a path to claim a majority in the House, which the odds have favored that outcome all year. The real suspense as the night went on was whether those gains would be big or not so big — and here, Republicans were forced to wait for more results before knowing what the future House would look like.

The recent pattern of change began in 2006, when Democrats scored major gains during George W. Bush’s presidency and took control of the House and Senate. In 2010, under President Barack Obama, they surrendered the House, and in 2014 they lost control of the Senate. In 2018, Democrats reclaimed the House and two years later the Senate. If Democrats were to lose both the House and Senate, Biden would be yet another president who saw control of Congress shift on his watch.

By early Wednesday, the balance of power in the Senate depended on the outcome of competitive contests in a handful of states. With late poll closings out West and expected slow counting of mail-in ballots in some places, a definitive answer to the question of who would be in the majority may not be forthcoming for days or perhaps longer.

By 2 a.m. Wednesday, the only Senate seat to switch party control was in Pennsylvania, where Fetterman was projected to defeat Republican Mehmet Oz to succeed the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Meanwhile, Democrats retained Sen. Maggie Hassan’s seat in New Hampshire, one that Republicans saw as a potential pickup that would signal a banner night for the party.

The House results alone — assuming the Republicans netted the five seats they needed to take control, an outcome Democratic officials were widely expecting — would be enough to shake up Washington, enough to throw Biden and the Democrats on the defensive after two years in which they controlled — barely — the main levers of power in the capital.

For Republicans, with power comes the obligation to govern — and to avoid the voters’ wrath two years hence. The last time they were in control of the presidency, the House and the Senate, which was after Trump was elected president in 2016, they stumbled badly on a pledge to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, squabbled among themselves and were saddled with unhappiness over Trump’s conduct in office. In 2018 they lost the House, and in 2020 the Senate.

Republicans tried to take advantage of prevailing public sentiment about inflation and crime and Biden’s low approval ratings. Republican candidates said they can bring down the cost of living, deal with crime and secure the southern border, but they have provided only scant policy details. Voters have shown time and again that they have limited patience awaiting results.

Preliminary exit polls showed an electorate, at least in terms of its composition, quite similar to that of the last midterm elections, in 2018, when Democrats scored major gains. But in some cases, the margins appeared more favorable to Republicans than they were four years ago.

Though not definitive, older voters were more Republican this year than in 2018. The preliminary exit polls shows signs of slippage for Democrats among Latinos and possibly among Black voters. White women without college degrees were voting even more strongly for Republicans this year than in 2018. But those are national percentages and do not provide state-by-state or district-by-district comparisons.

orlbucfan

I know the Progressive House Posse picked up seats. Question is how many? If the GOPukes try to bully them, the Repukes will have to deal with the voters in 2 years.

wi65

I would love to see the Dems get the last 3 seats and render Manchin,Sinema a non factor.

Benny
Benny

Not reported here but now I will: Justice Dem Greg Cesar won Texas-35! (can’t find a linky- I saw this in WaPo) So Bernie did some good for him and Summer Lee.

orlbucfan

+270!

jcitybone

A good example is PA. Nonpartisan polls had Fetterman up by 3-4. Bogus Republican polls had Oz winning. Fetterman is ahead by 3 now and will probably end up winning by 4 or 5 when the remaining votes (very Dem) are counted.

Paul ADK

Absolutely! Every polling entity has direct corporate ownership behind it, or is beholden to corporate endowments and foundations. If you can’t get at a sampling of voters? And you can’t, it’s impossible, smart phone technology precludes it. If you can’t the next best thing is 1) keeping your corporate masters happy, by telling them what they want to hear, while 2) discouraging your opposition and affecting the outcome that way.

Money doesn’t talk, it swears. And you’ll certainly never get the truth out of it, willingly. Because the truth is it’s all greedy self interests, there’s nothing for the public good being expressed anywhere anymore. At least not on the grand scale. Because the means of expression all owned and controlled by the oligarchy, and even that which once functioned reasonably has been corrupted.

Benny
Benny

We did it. I am honored to be Congresswoman-Elect for IL's 3rd District. Thank you! pic.twitter.com/00Mb7qOKQY

— Delia Ramirez (@Delia4Congress) November 9, 2022

phatkhat

The Dem for my new district is up 3.4 with 88% counted. Most of the local offices went red, sheriff, council, etc. But Maybe they are doing a good job and just got reelected. I don’t know yet, LOL.

orlbucfan

That’s an interesting observation about the local races. I voted for the GOPuke re-election of my County School Board Head. She’s done an excellent job, does not care for charter schools, and has done her best for the school kids re: Covid.

Benny
Benny

I voted for one for county sheriff but oddly he didn’t win. Less GOP got voted in on the councils. I think my area finally experienced a blue wave.

phatkhat

Update: The race has been called, and his opponent conceded! I looked for info on him, and he’s interesting. He is a meteorologist, and very outspoken about addressing climate change! Wow, the first weatherman in Congress. He’s also big on education, women’s rights, and improving the ACA/letting Medicare negotiate drug prices. That could be better, but I’ll take it. He’s also gay, and advocates for LGBTQ+. OMG, after living in Arkansas for 20 years, and having that slug Rick Crawford for Congressman for 11 of them, If I ever meet Eric Sorensen, I’m likely to hug him!

jcitybone

orlbucfan

Am I supposed to laugh out loud or what?!