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Benny

Bernie to campaign next Mexico/California border next week.

Don midwest
Don midwest

Visual Capitalist
Charting the World’s Major Stock Markets on the Same Scale (1990-2019)

$100 invested in S&P index in 1990 would be worth $1,000 today

How much of our politics is related to the market?

And the decades of vulture capitalism and companies buying their own stock to boost their stock prices, like Boeing, who did not take money and invest in a new air frame with new technology, which in hindsight would put them far ahead of anyone in the world. The old air frame could not support the changes but they pushed ahead.

An article with little text and graphs comparing US to other economies. Interesting that Japan has grown 1% in the same time period.

And another major factor is the growth of monopolies, neo liberal economics and money in politics.

I have felt for some time that the global economy is going to crash

I don’t want it to happen, but with Gaia and the right wing rulers in the world, things could get really bad, bad

polarbear4

trump will do all he can to keep it wobbling along until after the election.

polarbear4

polarbear4

polarbear4

good ?

Benny

I like the hashtag, #FirstJewishPresident.

I refuse to stand for the anti-Semitism they flippantly threw around in the UK to smear Jeremy Corbyn. We have a chance to make history in the United States with the first Jewish president, and I for one will fight like hell for Bernie.#FirstJewishPresident https://t.co/GrVW6z3KDo— beth, bringing Bernie to the White House (@bourgeoisalien) December 14, 2019

polarbear4

Benny

Could Multiple Candidates Win the Democratic Caucuses?

Already, Iowa has faced outside threats from those who argue its lead-off position in the presidential nominating process is outdated, undemocratic and unrepresentative. And some Iowa Democrats worry that any hiccup on caucus night — like a confusing story about who won — would add fuel to the fire.

Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price said he’s confident the new rules will offer a better explanation to the public of what happened on caucus night.

“I think what these numbers will do is just give greater transparency to the process, and people will have a better sense of what’s happening,” he said. “They’ll be able to see how people moved around and where support moved over the course of the evening. And I think that’s going to be valuable information as people head into the next round of early states and Super Tuesday.”
Caucuses are ‘messy by design’
Iowa’s Democratic caucuses are complicated affairs. They’re not run by the state, but by the state party and an army of unpaid volunteers.
“My goal, as I’ve joked, is to wake up on Feb. 4 saying, ‘Well, that could’ve gone worse,’” said Dubuque County Democrats Chairman Steve Drahozal. “Because the caucuses are messy by design.”
On Feb. 3, 2020, tens of thousands of Democrats will simultaneously gather across the state in roughly 1,700 school gymnasiums, church basements and other caucus precinct sites at 7 p.m..

Each candidate is awarded delegates based on the final alignment results at each precinct. Those are reported back to the Iowa Democratic Party, which puts the precinct-level delegates into a formula that calculates the equivalent number of delegates each candidate would earn at the county convention, the district convention and then at the state convention.
The final number is reported in “state delegate equivalents.”

snip

That will change for February’s caucuses.

This cycle, the party will release the number of people who supported each candidate on the first alignment and again after the realignment.

“Almost always there have been campaigns that have said, ‘Look, if this were a primary, I would have won. I had the most people. I just didn’t win the delegates, and that’s a silly system,’” said Norm Sterzenbach, a longtime Iowa Democratic operative who worked as Beto O’Rourke’s state director at the time he was interviewed and now advises U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s Iowa campaign on its caucus strategy. “But that argument doesn’t go anywhere because there’s not really any data — there’s certainly no independent data — to suggest that. … Now, it’s going to be right from the Democratic Party, right there for anyone to analyze and see.”

But having the data likely won’t end the jockeying.

“I think candidates will spin whatever narrative they want to coming out of caucus night,” Price said. “Our job is just to make sure that the data is accurate — that it accurately reflects what happened on caucus night. And that’s what we’re going to stay focused on.”

Iowa has 41 pledged delegates it sends to the national convention, and those are divvied out to candidates proportionally to their caucus night results. The candidate who earns the most delegates officially wins the Iowa caucuses.

But the caucuses have never just been about who actually gets the most delegates — Iowa has too few of those to matter much compared to larger states like Texas, which has 228 delegates, or California, with 416. The real winner in Iowa has always been the candidate who captures the media narrative and claims momentum going into the rest of the primary race.

In 2020, candidates will have more ways than ever to claim victory.

The candidate who wins the delegate count, for example, will likely be able to argue they out-organized their competitors. Iowa’s Electoral College-style delegate system rewards those with a grassroots operation that can reach supporters across the state in rural and urban areas.

But the candidate who wins the most support in the first alignment could say they would have won the night had Iowa held a simple primary contest. That’s a direct measurement of how Iowans felt when they walked into the caucus.

And the person who tallies the most supporters in the final alignment could make the case they can create the broadest coalition. Being able to attract supporters beyond one’s own base is valuable in a general election.

Benny

Part 2

It’s possible the same candidate could win all three measures of support. That would create the simplest narrative out of Iowa.

But it’s also fully possible that a different candidate could “win” each of the three metrics.
Anticipating what the new results might mean for a narrative, some campaigns could be campaigning strategically to try to inflate one metric over the other.

Previously, there’s never been a benefit to campaigning only in the densely Democratic Iowa City, for example, because the delegates there are capped. But a candidate this cycle might choose to run up the score there and in other Democratic strongholds to try to inflate their raw support numbers on the first and second alignments.

The availability of the new menu of results could benefit candidates by giving them more ammunition to argue they’ve won or over-performed expectations. But Sterzenbach said it could also make it harder for a candidate to claim momentum if there are others making the same case.
“If you’re banking on a momentum strategy like, ‘I’m going to do really well in Iowa and it’s going to springboard me to fundraising nationally’ … you need a clean result,” he said. “Only winning one of those is not clean. You’ve got somebody else who’s got this momentum story they can tell.”

A mixed result could also color the local and national perception of the caucuses.
The caucuses are already seen by many as unnecessarily complex and arcane. News that some precincts decided ties between Sanders and Clinton with coin flips in 2016 turned into a multi-day, international story as people marveled that such an important decision could come down to such low-tech solutions.

Split winner results could give critics yet another arrow to aim at the caucuses. Already this year, the DNC, citing cybersecurity concerns, said Iowa could not hold virtual caucuses in the week leading up to Feb. 3. The proposed virtual caucuses, which would have allowed people to caucus by phone, were an effort by the state party to make the caucuses more inclusive. The phone caucuses would help shift workers, the elderly, parents with children and others who find it difficult to participate at a particular place, time and night to take part.

“The stakes are incredibly high,” Bagniewski said of this year’s caucuses. “One thing that we have told all the people in training is that all eyes of the world, all eyes of the country are on the Iowa caucuses this time, and we can’t mess it up, because there are a lot of people who want to challenge our first-in-the-nation status. No pressure or anything.

polarbear4

Benny

Benny

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