In the final numbers, 29% of likely primary voters say they back Sanders, 22% back former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 11% support former Vice President Joe Biden, 10% support Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and 7% back Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The rest of the field falls at 5% or less.
Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote, meaning that despite the stability in the numbers throughout the six-day tracking period, there remains room for preferences to shift.
Sanders has a gaping 24-point lead among those who say they are committed to their candidate (42% for Sanders, 18% for Buttigieg, 14% for Biden, 10% for Warren, 6% for Klobuchar). Buttigieg holds an 11-point lead among those who could change their minds (26% for Buttigieg, 15% for Sanders, 10% for Warren and 7% each for Biden and Klobuchar).
Although none of the movement in the poll appears to threaten Sanders’ or Buttigieg’s place near the top of the field, there has been some growth in support for Klobuchar and for Biden in the final two days of fielding. While Klobuchar landed at 4% support in interviewing on Thursday and Friday, she holds 11% across Saturday and Sunday dialing. Biden, meanwhile, stood at 8% in the earlier two days and 14% in the final two. Those differences could suggest real movement, or may reflect a difference between those who are reachable on weeknights compared with weekends.
Warren continues to top the list of voters’ second choices (20% say she’s their second-choice candidate), followed by Sanders at 15% and Buttigieg at 14%.
Nearly six in 10 now say that Sanders is the candidate most likely to win New Hampshire’s Tuesday primary (59% say so, that’s ticked up from 56% in the first wave of tracking released on Saturday), while 10% expect a Buttigieg win and just 6% each a Biden or Warren win.
Sanders has also held on to his new edge as the candidate with the best chance to win in November, 30% say he’s that candidate, 22% say Biden, 13% Buttigieg.
President Donald Trump remains dominant in the Republican primary, with 90% of respondents saying they will vote for the President and just 7% backing former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld.
The CNN New Hampshire Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center was conducted February 6 through 9 among a random sample of 365 likely Democratic primary voters and 212 likely Republican primary voters. Results for likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.1%. It is plus or minus 6.7 points among likely Republican primary voters.
Nearly TWICE as many people showed up to our canvass launch here in Nashua, New Hampshire. In the last few days you’ve knocked on over 20% of the doors in this state, and you’re still going! Putting the “US” in #NotMeUS! pic.twitter.com/HoGY0jT8YQ
— Bryan Lawrence 🧔🏻📸 (@BreatheNewWinds) February 10, 2020
Compared to tooday’s RCP Avgs:
Looks like the foot is leading the door to be more open for Bernie’s campaign.
Gonna be a big event tonight, folks. Even by Bernie campaign standards
Trump’s got a giant rally of his own going on tonight.
We’re ready to drive the kind of enthusiasm and excitement you’ll need to defeat him. https://t.co/RnBhyVluxm
— Faiz (@fshakir) February 10, 2020
UPDATE: livestream for the Bernie/AOC Rally Tonight. Looks like they are doing it is a telethon too, seeking $10,000.
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