The race for the Democratic nomination began in earnest over the past couple of weeks, or at least it feels that way. After flirting with a run for months, Beto O’Rourke finally made his move by jumping on a bunch of countertops. Pete Buttigieg became a Cinderella story, rocketing up the polls to fifth—ahead of Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker—in what David Brooks, to a chorus of groans across America, referred to as “the biggest star-is-born moment since Lady Gaga started singing ‘Shallow.’” Joe Biden, who leads in the polls despite not having declared his candidacy, was accused by two women of unwanted touching, prompting a reevaluation of his entire, handsy history with women. And now the first-quarter fundraising numbers are trickling in: $7 million for Buttigieg. $12 million for Kamala Harris. O’Rourke, rather than reveal his three-month total, announced that he raised nearly $10 million in just 18 days since announcing his candidacy.
That about sums up the Democratic field right now—or so you might think, based on the political conversation of late. But a certain someone is missing from this picture: the candidate who consistently polls first among declared candidates, and who, in the first quarter, raised $18 million from an astounding 900,000 donors. He is the frontrunner for the nomination until someone proves otherwise.
And yet, Bernie Sanders is being treated as something of an afterthought, as the national press and Beltway pundits hop from one shiny object to the next.
As MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt argued earlier this week on Twitter, “Anyone who doesn’t treat [Sanders] becoming the Democratic nominee as a realistic and even likely possibility is making a big mistake (and failed to learn from mistakes made in 2016).”
Reports of a decline in enthusiasm among Sanders’s supporters also appear to have been greatly exaggerated. His fundraising and poll numbers disprove the idea that he’s an also-ran. But there are other signs of his continued vitality. Despite his near-universal name recognition, and the media’s overwhelming attention lately to O’Rourke, Biden, and Buttigieg, Sanders has consistently been among the top three Democratic candidates in Google searches, suggesting continued interest in his campaign. Finally, he appears to be broadly liked throughout the party. A Morning Consult poll in February found that he was the second choice for voters who supported the campaigns of Biden, Warren, and O’Rourke, suggesting that support could coalesce around his candidacy as other Democrats drop out.
Sanders may be a victim of his own success in a different way than the Times hypothesized: His popularity is now taken for granted. O’Rourke and Buttigieg, two young and dynamic candidates, have received an enormous amount of coverage over the past several weeks in part because they are fresh faces on the national scene. Sanders, as both the 2016 runner-up and a 77-year-old politician who has served in Congress since the early 1990s, is old news—and so is the resurgence of socialism in American politics, for which he’s largely responsible.
The caucuses and primaries don’t begin until next February. Many candidates will drop out well before then, due to poor polling and fundraising—both of which Sanders has in spades. He almost certainly will be one of the last candidates standing. The coverage of his campaign will only grow, especially as the remaining candidates seek to distinguish themselves from the Man Who Remade the Democratic Party.
All of the available evidence right now suggests that Sanders is the frontrunner. The pundits ignore this at their own peril.
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