Ryan Cooper

What Happens if President Biden Caves on the Debt Ceiling?

For months, President Biden had a consistent line on the debt ceiling: He would accept only a clean increase, without conditions. This was the lesson from the Obama administration, it was thought, learned at great expense when President Obama tried to negotiate with Tea Party Republicans in 2011 to get a grand bargain to cut the deficit. The result was the budget “sequester,” which badly eroded the federal government and elongated the agonizingly slow economic recovery. That’s why Obama stood his ground in 2013, and Republicans—eventually—backed down, getting essentially nothing out of the eventual debt ceiling increase.

But now all that is out the window. With the June 1 X-date approaching, the Washington media clamoring for Biden to cave, and administration officials working themselves into an anxious fit over potential executive actions to nullify the ceiling, it seems President Dark Brandon is returning to be old Conciliatory Joe. The man himself telegraphed this in a speech in New York last week that was designed to hammer Republicans over the debt ceiling, saying “we should be cutting spending and lowering the deficit without a needless crisis, in a responsible way.”

Reuters and Politico report that the White House is preparing to offer concessions in the form of cutting discretionary spending to the level of fiscal year 2022, and then capping the rate of increase at 1 percent per year for an indeterminate period, maybe two years. There would be other parts to the compromise, including rescinding some COVID aid and some bargain on permitting reform, but as far as spending, the discretionary caps would be the major piece.

This is a disastrous move. Politically, it reinforces the precedent that Republicans can extract concessions through legislative terrorism, and by signaling weakness and timidity in the Democratic leadership, it will further enable GOP extremism. If Republicans control either chamber of Congress next time the ceiling is hit—a high likelihood given how bad the Senate map is in 2024—then they’re virtually certain to take the debt ceiling hostage again.

But the practical consequences will also be terrible. We don’t know the details yet, but returning to fiscal year 2022 budget levels would mean an immediate cut of about 13 percent to every government agency and program (thanks to an unusually large spending increase in 2023 to account for economic growth, high inflation, and a few additional programs). If defense and border cops are exempted, then the cut will be perhaps 22 percent.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), the ranking member on the House Appropriations Committee, solicited estimates from various government departments on what that 22 percent cut would mean. They told her that just for starters, 60,000 people would not be able to attend college; 200,000 children would get kicked off Head Start; 100,000 families would lose child care; and 1.2 million people would be removed from WIC nutrition assistance.

One hundred twenty-five air traffic control towers would be shut down, affecting one-third of airports, and no doubt worsening the chronic snarls in American air travel. Rail safety inspections would be cut back by 11,000 work days, meaning 30,000 miles of track going uninspected. (More dangerous chemical spills, here we come!) Some 640,000 families would lose rental assistance, and 430,000 more would be evicted from Section 8 housing. And even all that isn’t the whole list of carnage.

Now, Republicans have not suggested an across-the-board cut, and it’s certainly possible that some of the above priorities would be spared. But that would only make the cuts to the programs that don’t get such treatment worse, because appropriators would need to hit that overall cap number.

Incidentally, this illustrates well the utter stupidity of Republican budget politics. Instead of drawing up a list of priorities, calculating how to fund them, and then writing a budget plan to fit—they neither know nor care about any of that stuff—they just demand arbitrary and escalating cuts to everything that isn’t the troops or border police, because that’s what right-wing media says is the most conservative thing to do.

Needless to say, there’s no indication of any revenue increases being discussed to offset this pain. Anti-tax Republicans wouldn’t like that, and in this hostage situation, you mustn’t anger the guys (and it’s mostly guys) with the guns.

There may well be macroeconomic effects from this deal as well. These cuts would suck hundreds of billions of dollars out of an economy that is already plainly softening, thanks to high interest rates and instability in the banking system. A ton of austerity might just be the thing that tips America into a recession during an election year, with Biden, a willing negotiator in this process, on the ballot.

Finally, it’s not at all clear that House Republicans will actually accept this partial ransom. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy just barely managed to pass his current debt ceiling hostage note by giving the far right everything it asked for (and then only because two Democrats were absent from the chamber). Sure enough, several members told Politico Friday that they want the spending cap to last ten years instead of two, at a minimum. As I was writing this, others also told Politico they want harsh border controls as well.

From their perspective, this makes perfect sense. If Biden is too weak-willed to stare down Republicans like Obama did in 2013, and too chicken to mint the coin or invoke the 14th Amendment, why not demand more concessions while he’s on the ropes? Heck, why not demand the entire ransom, including work requirements for Medicaid and gutting the Inflation Reduction Act?

Two years of capped spending is bad enough. But it might end up being even worse.

From Capitol Fax blog (IL), which provides news summaries.

The excerpts are from the Peoria Journal Star.

DeSantis brought a crowd of roughly 1,150 Republicans to the event at the Peoria Civic Center, plus protesters and the New York Times. While he did not announce an anticipated run for president while in Peoria, he did use a roughly 42-minute speech to take shots at Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and levy a barrage of verbal jabs at Democrats, while also lauding his accomplishments as governor of Florida.

“I’m a little disappointed your governor said I wasn’t welcome in Illinois,” DeSantis said in response to remarks made by Pritzker ahead of his arrival. “Because I seem to remember when he was locking down this state, he sent his family to live in my state and live in our freedom.”

Peoria Congressman Darin LaHood cracked a similar joke at Pritzker’s expense saying, “you know it’s a sign we’re having a good Lincoln Day when J.B. Pritzker is tweeting and crying that Ron DeSantis is not welcome in Illinois.” […]

During his speech, DeSantis frequently criticized Illinois laws and policies, including the state’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Illinois tax rates, and criminal justice reform. DeSantis specifically mentioned Florida’s lack of an income tax and said “you should try it sometime.”

“We have to reject the weaponization of the criminal justice system, this is being driven by woke ideology,” DeSantis said. “We reject the idea that you defund law enforcement, we reject the idea that you tolerate rioting and looting and disorder. We reject soft on crime policies like abolishing cash bail and releasing prisoners from jail early.”

This is not news.

Um, they were in Florida before the stay at home order was issued and then sheltered in place (his kid goes to college there). Did they know what was coming? Probably. Not saying it was the case with them, but I had friends down there who were miserable during the spring. The beaches and pools were closed. The restaurants and taverns were shuttered. And then summer hit and COVID zoomed as people retreated indoors to avoid the Florida heat and humidity. I put off visiting the Sunshine State to the fall, when cases were rising in Springfield as people went back inside and Florida’s dropped because people could enjoy the outdoors again.

Pritzker had a rapid response:

The governor and his family live in Illinois. As you know, they have one daughter who attends the University of Miami. If this pathetic, repeated lie about someone’s child is the best thing the GOP can come up with to campaign on, then it tells you everything you need to know about their ideas for the future.

“Inviting a failed governor who is at war with Donald Trump to keynote one of your largest events is emblematic of today’s Illinois GOP,” said JB For Governor spokesperson Natalie Edelstein.

“Republicans are too busy fighting each other to get out of their own way and solve the issues facing working families. While they celebrate banning books and picking on LGBTQ+ kids, Illinois Democrats will continue to win elections and build a state where everyone is free to be who they are.”

Mayor-Elect Brandon Johnson walking the streets of #Chicago on the West Side near Michele Clark Magnet High School on the day of his inauguration to be the 57th Mayor of Chicago. pic.twitter.com/XGzUB5nMDb

— George Mycyk NBC 🇺🇦 (@GeorgeMycykNBC) May 15, 2023

He’s here! #DaMayor Brandon Johnson! #Chicago pic.twitter.com/2M7MEm0dDD

— Faith Pennick (@FaithPennick) May 15, 2023

So much weight on his shoulders now. Best of luck, Brandon. May the road ahead always rising, and the wind at your back.

More from Capitol Fax blog, which quotes from Crain’s Chicago Business:

Among the moves by the General Assembly last week, Gov. J.B. Pritzker hailed the Illinois House’s passage of House Bill 579, which would allow Illinois to set up its own insurance marketplace similar to Obamacare.

“Through the adoption of a state-based insurance marketplace, we can expand health care access by effectively identifying traditionally underinsured communities, conducting effective outreach to them and assisting in the enrollment process,” Pritzker said in a statement, adding that he looks forw Butard to following the bill’s progress in the Illinois Senate.

A bill that’s already heading to Pritzker’s desk for a signature would require health insurers to cover preventative liver screenings and other diagnostics. The bill, championed by state Rep. Hoan Huynh, D-Chicago, will expand access to tests that may detect forms of cancer and cirrhosis of the liver.

“People shouldn’t have to choose between buying their next meal or their medication,” Huynh said in a statement. “Rising costs of health care and general inflation are suffocating our working families and seniors. I remain committed to working to find ways to implement real relief for those who need it most.”

This is one of the things I’ve been concerned about. Instead of MFA, they are proposing Biden austerity care. But maybe I’ll be wrong and instead be pleasantly surprised.

Join @RepJayapal and me for a town hall on Medicare for All this TUESDAY, May 16 at the U.S. Capitol. It’s time to make it clear that health care is a human right, not a privilege. pic.twitter.com/ycDZ5MHUD4

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) May 15, 2023

Remember Andrew Gillum?

Guess what?

Andrew Gillum was found not guilty today.

Enrique Tarrio was found guilty today.

Tarrio was the one who helped drug Gillum, then took photos of him nude and posted them on the internet so no one would keep asking about that suspicious DeSantis 2018 “win.”

😁🥂

— Rebekah Jones. (@GeoRebekah) May 4, 2023

BREAKING: Billionaires spent $1,000,000,000 on last year's midterm elections, setting a new record.

That's a 72% increase from the 2018 midterms.

These contributions aren't just drowning out voters' voices—billionaires are betting they'll make great returns on investment. pic.twitter.com/i8ICGhHkLC

— Americans For Tax Fairness (@4TaxFairness) May 15, 2023

we've heard this argument from tech time and time again

most recently from the crypto industry and i think we all understand what happened there https://t.co/bHAgoMRiJ9

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) May 15, 2023

Same with real estate. The industry always claims it can regulate itself.

The emails show Dataminr was alerting the Marshals to social media posts naming the time/place of planned abortion rallies and the real-time movements of ongoing protests. I previously reported Dataminr had done similar after the murder of George Floyd https://t.co/ezsNgyoj7g

— Sam Biddle (@samfbiddle) May 15, 2023

Crucially, Twitter has a longstanding policy explicitly banning the use of its data to do exactly what happened here: Surveilling protests. Dataminr's response was, bizarrely, that it "fully complies with Twitter’s policies." You can judge that for yourself. pic.twitter.com/0Rt9DAN2ti

— Sam Biddle (@samfbiddle) May 15, 2023

The emails also indicate that Dataminr is alerting the Marshals whenever someone merely mentions the name of a judge or attorney general, including simply sharing a link to an article via Telegram sans commentary, or leaving a comment on a blog or news site.

— Sam Biddle (@samfbiddle) May 15, 2023

Here is Twitter’s longtime policy on third party data use, paired with a screenshot of a Dataminr alert based on the company’s privileged Twitter API access. If you worked at Twitter and can discuss any of this, please also reach out. pic.twitter.com/Uw5y6m8lXZ

— Sam Biddle (@samfbiddle) May 15, 2023

The Biden administration's desperation to reach a deal on energy has empowered Joe Manchin to set the terms of the debate, again.https://t.co/HFZaFjpP29

— The American Prospect (@TheProspect) May 15, 2023

let’s make it rain with @HelenGymPHL for mayor votes tomorrow!! a big thanks to her staffers as well as @BernieSanders & @AOC's crews for having speedy ortiz on board at the GOTV rally, an emotional day hearing so many speakers with a clear & beautiful vision for our city 💙🗳️ pic.twitter.com/01ddRTvgHR

— speedy ortiz ÷ sad13 ÷ sadie dupuis ÷ haunted guy (@sad13) May 15, 2023

I shared @stucknation’s recent article here already I think, but can’t hurt to share again!
I see he just interviewed @nynurses this morning @WorkBitesNews — I haven’t listened yet.

This week is sure to be a very big week for the Medicare for All mvmnt!https://t.co/2N2BG7IErZ

— #RedBerets #MedicareForAll (@RedBeretsM4All) May 16, 2023