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jcitybone

Mentioned last night. Could get somewhat closer with late arriving ballots.

At least Bernie will get delegates here
Biden 70%
Bernie 19%
Warren 9%

In OR-3, Blumenauer easily defeated Lee 82% to 15%. In OR-5, Gamba did a little better, but he was still beaten by Schrader 71% to 22%

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-wins-oregon-primary-42-delegates/

CBS News projects Joe Biden will win the Oregon Democratic presidential primary Tuesday night. CBS News estimates the win puts Biden at 1,514 total national delegates so far.

Biden is still 477 delegates short of the 1,991 needed to secure the nomination, but seven states, including Maryland and Pennsylvania, will hold primaries June 2. Biden has been running virtually unopposed since early April when Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign.

polarbear4

yeah. defazio sailed in, too. bummer

jcitybone

Obama would win in a landslide. That’s why I’m not sure what Trump is doing by going after him.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/498688-obama-would-beat-trump-in-head-to-head-matchup-poll

Former President Barack Obama would beat current President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup if an election was held today, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey obtained by Politico showed that 54 percent of respondents would vote for Obama and 43 percent would vote for Trump if the candidates faced each other now.

jcitybone

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/politics/trump-2020-analysis/index.html?source_referral=FB_Instant?medium=Android?user_app=AndroidMobile

Former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in the presidential race. He leads in the swing states and is up somewhere between 5 and 8 points nationally, depending on what methodology you use.

Yet it’s important to point out that even if the polls are an accurate representation of the current state of the race, presidential races can shift a lot during the final six months of the campaign.

Biden may be favored, but this race is far from over.

Take a look at every presidential election involving an incumbent since 1940. It’s 13 races in total and gives us a good baseline from which to work.

There’s been a 11-point difference between an average of May polls and the result in the average election. That would be more than enough to change the course of the 2020 race, if the shift occurred in Trump’s direction.

You could even concentrate on just the most recent incumbent elections of 2004 and 2012. Like 2020, opinions of the incumbents (George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012) were hardened early. The final national results in those races differed from the May polls by 3 and 4 points.

If the 2020 race moved 3 to 4 points in Trump’s direction, he might not win the popular vote, but he would have a pretty good shot of winning the electoral college.

Of course, just because something is possible doesn’t mean it’s likely.

Even if we saw a swing in the 2020 race, there’s no guarantee it would go in Trump’s favor. In the 13 races since 1940, seven times the incumbent did better than he was polling now. The other six times, the challenger did better. Just based on that data alone, it’s really no better than a 50/50 proposition that Trump will do better in the results than he is polling currently.

Further, polls tend to shift in the incumbent’s direction when they’re doing worse than their approval ratings would suggest. Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 ended up outperforming their May polling and came in closer to where their net approval (approval – disapproval) ratings suggested they’d be. Carter in 1980 and Bush in 1992 trended toward their negative net approval ratings.

Trump’s net approval rating is in the mid to high negative single digits, which is right in line with his polling against Biden.

The bottom line is six months is a lifetime in politics, but you’d rather be in Biden’s position than Trump’s.

polarbear4

that’s actually a pretty good showing for right now tho.

jcitybone

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/opinion/nursing-homes-coronavirus-liability.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Contributors

Just three weeks ago, family and friends did their best to comfort my six siblings and me via videoconference as we mourned my mother, Sylvia. Our grief was compounded by the circumstances of her death: She died at 82 after contracting the coronavirus at her assisted living facility, one of the victims of an outbreak that killed at least 5 patients and sickened 30 other residents and staff members.

It has also been compounded by the divisive rhetoric from elected officials seeking to prevent families from seeking redress for their loved ones’ unnecessary suffering.

While thousands of Americans perish daily from Covid-19, the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, has chosen a scapegoat to distract from our government’s failures. Claiming that the disease will become “the biggest trial lawyer bonanza in history,” Mr. McConnell is drafting legislation to protect the nursing home industry from lawsuits — even though home residents and workers represent a third of the country’s coronavirus deaths.

I am president-elect of the association of trial lawyers whose mission is to preserve access to civil justice for all Americans. My group, the American Association for Justice, opposes Senator McConnell’s efforts. Yet that is not the main reason I am against giving blanket immunity to corporations that fail to take reasonable precautions to stop the spread of Covid-19. My mother’s avoidable death has made this fight more personal than ever before.

Benny

Looks like John Edwards may get some business. And he will help the patients too.

jcitybone

Interesting article by Juan Cole comparing the US and Iran

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/religious-fundamentalists-coronavirus-pandemic/

As he saw it, his River Tampa Bay Church was the “safest place” around because it was the site of “salvation.” Only in early April did he finally move his services online, and it probably wasn’t to protect the health of his congregation either. His insurance company had cancelled on him after his arrest and his continued defiance of local regulations.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis muddied the waters further in early April by finally issuing a statewide shelter-in-place order that exempted churches as “essential services.” Then, after only a month, he abruptly reopened the state anyway. DeSantis, who had run a Facebook group dominated by racist comments and had risen on Donald Trump’s coattails, has a sizeable evangelical constituency and, in their actions, he and Pastor Howard-Browne have hardly been alone.

It tells you all you need to know that, by early May, more than 30 evangelical pastors had died of Covid-19 across the Bible Belt.

orlbucfan

Florida, yet again the poster child of institutionalized political corruption and Fundamentalist Bible Belt stupidity!! 😖

wi62

And now the stats on CV-19 is being manipulated and they just fired some one in their health dept for “Insubornation” must have tried to tell the truth.

jcitybone

Save the potatoes!

8C2FEEB2-983F-4216-9B03-D7EF970E8E22.jpeg
polarbear4

yeah probably big farmers and ranchers

Benny

If anybody needs me, I'll be out guarding Virginia's potatoes.— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) May 19, 2020

jcitybone

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/us/politics/joe-biden-israel-anti-semitism.html

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. told donors on a call on Tuesday that it was important to condemn criticism of Israel that drifts toward anti-Semitism, including on the political left, even as he acknowledged that he had “gotten in trouble” for such calls in the past.
“Criticism of Israel’s policy is not anti-Semitism,” Mr. Biden said. “But too often that criticism from the left morphs into anti-Semitism.”

Mr. Biden, who was answering a question about anti-Semitism on the left in the United States and England, added that “arguably, we haven’t heard enough about the Holocaust because people are still trying to deny its horrible reality.”

“So many people forget,” he went on, “it’s almost hard to believe.”

The remarks came as Mr. Biden works to unite the Democratic Party and appeal to progressives, especially younger ones, who viewed him with suspicion during the primary race. A cohort of younger progressives have been outspoken in opposition to Israel’s policies toward Palestinians, particularly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mr. Biden did not cite any specific examples of anti-Semitic comments on the left or specifically identify individuals or groups that he was concerned about.

Mr. Biden himself said he was disappointed in Mr. Netanyahu for having moved “so, so far to the right” and called for Israel to “stop the threat of annexation” of West Bank territories.
“It’ll choke off any hope of peace,” Mr. Biden said, according to a pool report.

Mr. Biden said that “my commitment to Israel is absolutely unshakable” and pledged to reverse actions taken under President Trump, including restoring diplomatic relationships with the Palestinian Authority.

orlbucfan

Man, this yahoo is demented. Between him and the fat orange stupe, it’s the worse POTUS choice in my Boomer lifetime.🤮

magsview

THE WORST!

magsview

FU Biden! Feeding into the ‘anti-Semitic left’ crap!! And implying that the left is full of people denying the Holocaust? WTH!

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