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Perhaps most strikingly, the virtual collapse of Biden’s support between the June and August Monmouth surveys has not materially benefited any of the moderates-in-waiting who have been, well, biding their time in hopes that the longtime front-runner would stumble. Among self-identified moderate-to-conservative Democrats, Biden still leads with 22 percent, but Sanders is second at 20 percent, and Warren third at 16 percent. Harris is a poor fourth at 5 percent, while Pete Buttigieg is at 4 percent, and Amy Klobuchar at 2 percent. Similarly, the nonwhite candidates who expected to make big gains if Biden slipped aren’t benefiting much, as support is swapped around between the Big Three. Among nonwhite Democrats, Sanders now leads with 22 percent, while Biden is second at 19 percent, and Warren is third at 14 percent. Kamala Harris, who can claim both African-American and Asian-American identity, is fourth at 9 percent; Asian-American Andrew Yang is at 5 percent, while Latino Julián Castro is at 3 percent.

Yes, this is just one national poll, but the domination by the Big Three in virtually every demographic category is typical. Fox News polling has showed Biden, Warren, and Sanders together holding 61 percent of the vote in May, 60 percent in July and 61 percent in August. In the latest Fox poll the three leading white candidates hog 60 percent of the nonwhite vote as well, with Harris a poor fourth at 7 percent. In a mid-August CNN survey the Big Three have a combined 58 percent, with Buttigieg and Harris tied for third at 5 percent.

Nor does the picture change that much in the early states. Using RealClearPolitics polling averages, the Big Three have 58 percent in Iowa; 55 percent in New Hampshire; 61 percent in Nevada and 65 percent in South Carolina. You have to get to Kamala Harris’s home turf of California to find a relatively early state where anyone outside the Big Three actually ranks in the top three, but even there, the latest poll has her running fourth.


Bernie is neither moderate nor conservative. Polls are such PR bullshite. T and R, humphrey aka ornery. LOL 🙂

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