Didn’t we just have a debate? Oh yeah, a month ago. The cycle is now 13 months and still 9 more to go!
ABC News is the host of the eighth Democratic primary debate of the campaign cycle in partnership with Apple News and Hearst Television’s WMUR-TV, ABC’s affiliate station in New Hampshire. It will take place at Saint Anselm College’s Sullivan Arena in Manchester, New Hampshire. Debate mods are Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos, “World News Tonight” Anchor and Managing Editor David Muir and ABC News Live Anchor Linsey Davis. Joining them are WMUR-TV Political Director Adam Sexton and WMUR-TV News Anchor Monica Hernandez.
Candidates have one minute and 15 seconds to answer direct questions, 45 seconds for rebuttals, at the discretion of the moderators. Candidates will not make opening or closing statements, but there will be a closing question. I hope it’s not as one of those dumb flowery questions to make polite chit-chat. Our democracy is at risk as it is.
The podium placement is determined by averaging the candidates’ qualifying polls as certified by the DNC. Polls had to be publicly released between Dec. 13 and 11:59 p.m. Thursday. Note: Biden is in the center, not Bernie.
When the DNC announced the qualifying criteria for this debate, candidates had another way to secure their place on stage — by being awarded at least one pledged delegate to the Democratic National Convention from Monday’s Iowa Caucus. However, given the issues with reporting results, and DNC Chairman Tom Perez’s call for a recanvass Thursday, the Iowa Democratic Party has not announced who has received delegates, and the candidates who qualified submitted for certification based on polling and fundraising thresholds.
The debate, airing from 8 p.m. to 11 p.m. ET on the ABC Television Network. I don’t know if there is a free livestream or not. If one becomes available, it will be posted.
Ready for Cocktails/Mocktails? Bar is open, and this is an open thread. Post comments, news, tweets, and videos below. See you there!
As posted on the earlier thread, Bernie Sanders declared victory in the Iowa Caucus. He won by 6,000. As we all remember from Bernie’s political history, it’s not the first time he’s won narrowly. That was the case in Michigan, and NH/SC/NV will likely be squeakers too.
Bernie Thanks Misty Rebik and the Iowa Team:
.@BernieSanders and our movement won IOWA!!!! Take a moment to savor it. We’re going to win New Hampshire next week and it’s gonna keep getting better & better #NotMeUspic.twitter.com/f9Qy4toPo9
DNC Chair Tom Perez has called for a “recanvass” which I just learned is a “review” not necessarily a recount. We’ll see if the numbers flip, but for now, onward to NH!
Finally, Bernie speaks out against the DNC Rules Committee for changing the rules to allow Bloomberg into the debates. Rebecca Klar from The Hill reports:
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Thursday blasted the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) recent decision to eliminate its fundraising requirement for candidates to qualify for debates, potentially allowing his Democratic presidential rival Mike Bloomberg on stage. Rebecca Klar at The Hill reports:
“I think it is an outrage,” Sanders said during a press conference in New Hampshire. “Listen, rules are rules, and people like [former Housing and Urban Development Secretary] Julián Castro played by the rules, campaigned really hard. [New Jersey Sen.] Cory Booker played by the rules. [Hawaii Rep.] Tulsi Gabbard played by the rules. Andrew Yang played by the rules.”
All the people Sanders mentioned are, or were at one time, competing in the Democratic primary.
“And based on the rules determined by the DNC, they were unable to participate in one or more debates,” he added.
Sanders and other candidates in the race have criticized the DNC’s move last week to drop a donor requirement, which has opened the door for Bloomberg to make the debate stage.
Bloomberg was not allowed to participate in the first Democratic debates because he is self-funding his campaign and did not meet the DNC’s requirement that candidates raise money from a certain number of contributors.
Under the rules rolled out last week, Democrats can meet either a delegates threshold or polling threshold to qualify for the Feb. 19 debate in Las Vegas. That could open the possibility for Bloomberg, who has risen in recent national polls, to appear in the event.
The billionaire former mayor of New York City has been running an untraditional campaign, skipping the first voting contests in the primary and instead focusing his resources on March 3, known as Super Tuesday, when more than a dozen states will hold voting.
Sanders on Thursday slammed the party’s decision to change the rules for someone “worth $55 billion,” referring to Bloomberg without calling him out by name.
“Suddenly a guy comes in who has not campaigned one bit in Iowa or New Hampshire … but he’s worth $55 billion and I guess if you’re worth $55 billion you can get the rules changed for a debate,” Sanders said.
Reminder: CNN TownHall with Bernie is 7CT/8ET tonight. If I can locate a livestream, it will be posted.
This serves as an open thread for tweets, videos, or other news.
He not only was an amazing actor but also producer. He also helped people like Dalton Trumbo come back after the blacklist, & did so much w/ charities.
He helped make Hollywood, quite frankly, Hollywood.
Regarding Douglas’ movies, I will have to watch Ace in the Hole sometime soon. Spartacus was my favorite, followed by Lonely Are the Brave If you haven’t seen Trumbo, (which is about Dalton Trumbo, a socialist), I highly recommend it. Bryan Cranston is delightful in the role.
More news, tweets, videos in the comments. This serves an open thread.
PartialrResults are supposed to be released at 4 CT this afternoon. Here’s a screenshot of the numbers fed to NBC News (still haven’t found them on the website):
Meantime, the new oligarch on the block seems not to want to release tax returns. Why?
NEW: a voter in Detroit asks Mike Bloomberg why he won’t release his tax returns. Bloomberg ignores the question while one of his paid supporters says “well why should he? Trump hasn’t released his taxes” pic.twitter.com/wX4k89kHXf
We’re heading into Caucus Night in Iowa. Weather conditions are cloudy and temps are hovering around freezing. There has been a forecast for some drizzle, but hopefully it won’t stop too many from driving and getting in line.
While some campaign aides were unsure how the results would turn out hours before the caucuses would begin, they expressed some apprehension about the outcome. “Most [aides] feel it’s not going to be great,” one longtime Biden ally who has had conversations with top aides inside the campaign, acknowledged Monday. Biden’s aides and allies said they were hoping to place in the top three. But even if they fall short, the campaign is “built for the long haul,” one Biden confidant said. Biden said in an interview with NBC that “my gut tells me things are going well.” Still, he added, that the results would be “close.”
The official results are from The Caucus website. But of course, the AP is the one that calls the race.
Here’s the Caucus process.
There are three main parts to the caucus:
Introductory Business: During this time the caucus will elect the permanent chair and secretary, hear a message from the state party chair, hear from local elected officials, and if time allows hear from local candidates for office.
Presidential Preference: During this time you will determine viability, break into preference groups, and elect delegates to the County Convention. Party Business: During this time you will elect members to the county central committee and discuss platform planks to the county convention.
PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE — PICKING A CANDIDATE Getting Started The caucus chair will kick off the meeting with general party business, including a letter from IDP Chair Troy Price.
To determine the viability threshold for each preference group the Caucus Chair will count the room of caucugoers by passing out numbered Presidential Preference Cards to each caucusgoer.
The viability threshold for most precincts is 15%, and can be higher in precincts electing less than 4 delegates on caucus night. 4+ delegates = 15% 3 delegates = 16.66% 2 delegates = 25%
Each Precinct Chair will have an opportunity to make a brief speech in support of their candidate.
First Alignment Eligible caucusgoers divide to form Presidential preference groups—simply by standing in a section of the room devoted to their candidate. The Caucus Chair and Precinct Captains count the caucusgoers in each group and agree on a final number for the first alignment.
Support for viable preference is locked after the first alignment. Caucusgoers in viable preference groups will fill out the Presidential Preference Card, sign it, and turn it in. Those caucusgoers can choose to leave or observe the final alignment before participating in the Party Business portion of the caucus.
Final Alignment Caucusgoers in non-viable preference groups have the opportunity to realign for a final time. These caucusgoers can either: (my note: the is the first time that there is only one final alignment. There’s generally a lot of horse-trading of caucus-goers, but tonight, they have to do the following..)
Join a viable group Earn support for their group or another non-viable group
Form an uncommitted or other group (this is what we have to look for–it’s possible that many may be uncommitted if they can’t get their alignment)
In the rare event of a second alignment with more viable preference groups than total electable delegates, the smallest group(s) would need to realign another time. . Before leaving, caucusgoers will fill out the Presidential Preference Card, sign it, and turn it in.
Delegate Allocation Delegates are awarded to the final, viable preference groups based on their size.
The formula to determine a viable preference groups’ delegate allocation is: # of people in group X # delegates precinct is electing ______________________________________________ # of caucus attendees
Caucus Chairs and Precinct Captains will calculate the delegate allocation for each group and match their counts before reporting the results to the IDP.
REPORTED NUMBERS The IDP does not declare a winner, the party’s role is to present results. The IDP encourages outlets to use the reported SDE number to determine a caucus winner.
First Alignment: Reflects total number of participants and initial support in that precinct caucus.
Final Alignment: Reflects movement in the room and final voter count.
SDE: State delegate equivalency is the projected number of state party convention delegates the candidates will receive based upon results of the precinct caucuses. National Convention Delegates allocation will be reported as part of the caucus results. That number can only be calculated upon receipt of all precinct caucus results and will be reported at that time.
All of these numbers now how to be reported as raw counts, then final count. Also new is the satellite caucuses. There are 87 of them, more than half are in Iowa nursing homes, local libraries, etc. As reported in the last thread, one caucus met at lunch in order to accommodate those who cannot attend a caucus at 7pm.
It may be a lengthy evening. Bernie is on his way, but I hope his plane makes it in, with a lot of cloud cover. It’s also Feb 3rd in Iowa.
Clear as mud?
Join us at the Nest! Post your tweets, videos, articles, etc in the comments.
