LiVEStream coming of Bernie Addressing His Supporters in DM:
— Harpreet Chima (@HarpreetChima) February 4, 2020
We’re heading into Caucus Night in Iowa. Weather conditions are cloudy and temps are hovering around freezing. There has been a forecast for some drizzle, but hopefully it won’t stop too many from driving and getting in line.
Already the Biden Camp is lowering Expectations…
While some campaign aides were unsure how the results would turn out hours before the caucuses would begin, they expressed some apprehension about the outcome.
“Most [aides] feel it’s not going to be great,” one longtime Biden ally who has had conversations with top aides inside the campaign, acknowledged Monday.
Biden’s aides and allies said they were hoping to place in the top three. But even if they fall short, the campaign is “built for the long haul,” one Biden confidant said.
Biden said in an interview with NBC that “my gut tells me things are going well.” Still, he added, that the results would be “close.”
The official results are from The Caucus website. But of course, the AP is the one that calls the race.
Here’s the Caucus process.
There are three main parts to the caucus:
- Introductory Business: During this time the caucus will elect the permanent chair and secretary, hear a message from the state party chair, hear from local elected officials, and if time allows hear from local candidates for office.
- Presidential Preference: During this time you will determine viability, break into preference groups, and elect delegates to the County Convention.
Party Business: During this time you will elect members to the county central committee and discuss platform planks to the county convention.
PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE — PICKING A CANDIDATE
The caucus chair will kick off the meeting with general party business, including a letter from IDP Chair Troy Price.
To determine the viability threshold for each preference group the Caucus Chair will count the room of caucugoers by passing out numbered Presidential Preference Cards to each caucusgoer.
The viability threshold for most precincts is 15%, and can be higher in precincts electing less than 4 delegates on caucus night.
4+ delegates = 15%
3 delegates = 16.66%
2 delegates = 25%
Each Precinct Chair will have an opportunity to make a brief speech in support of their candidate.
Eligible caucusgoers divide to form Presidential preference groups—simply by standing in a section of the room devoted to their candidate. The Caucus Chair and Precinct Captains count the caucusgoers in each group and agree on a final number for the first alignment.
Support for viable preference is locked after the first alignment. Caucusgoers in viable preference groups will fill out the Presidential Preference Card, sign it, and turn it in. Those caucusgoers can choose to leave or observe the final alignment before participating in the Party Business portion of the caucus.
Caucusgoers in non-viable preference groups have the opportunity to realign for a final time. These caucusgoers can either: (my note: the is the first time that there is only one final alignment. There’s generally a lot of horse-trading of caucus-goers, but tonight, they have to do the following..)
Join a viable group
Earn support for their group or another non-viable group
Form an uncommitted or other group (this is what we have to look for–it’s possible that many may be uncommitted if they can’t get their alignment)
In the rare event of a second alignment with more viable preference groups than total electable delegates, the smallest group(s) would need to realign another time.
Before leaving, caucusgoers will fill out the Presidential Preference Card, sign it, and turn it in.
Delegates are awarded to the final, viable preference groups based on their size.
The formula to determine a viable preference groups’ delegate allocation is:
# of people in group X # delegates precinct is electing
# of caucus attendees
Caucus Chairs and Precinct Captains will calculate the delegate allocation for each group and match their counts before reporting the results to the IDP.
The IDP does not declare a winner, the party’s role is to present results. The IDP encourages outlets to use the reported SDE number to determine a caucus winner.
First Alignment: Reflects total number of participants and initial support in that precinct caucus.
Final Alignment: Reflects movement in the room and final voter count.
SDE: State delegate equivalency is the projected number of state party convention delegates the candidates will receive based upon results of the precinct caucuses.
National Convention Delegates allocation will be reported as part of the caucus results. That number can only be calculated upon receipt of all precinct caucus results and will be reported at that time.
All of these numbers now how to be reported as raw counts, then final count. Also new is the satellite caucuses. There are 87 of them, more than half are in Iowa nursing homes, local libraries, etc. As reported in the last thread, one caucus met at lunch in order to accommodate those who cannot attend a caucus at 7pm.
It may be a lengthy evening. Bernie is on his way, but I hope his plane makes it in, with a lot of cloud cover. It’s also Feb 3rd in Iowa.
Clear as mud?
Join us at the Nest! Post your tweets, videos, articles, etc in the comments.
UPDATE: Prelim numbers by The Hill: