Large majorities of voters in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries said they would vote for whichever candidate gets the party’s nomination against President Trump in November. Across Michigan, Missouri and Washington about 9 in 10 of Biden’s supporters said they would support the party nominee. Across those three states, at least 8 in 10 of Sanders voters said they would vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election.
Michigan voters who backed Sanders on Tuesday are far more likely to say they are enthusiastic about his candidacy than Biden backers, according to preliminary exit poll results. The early results show over 8 in 10 voters who supported Sanders said they would be enthusiastic if he wins the nomination. By contrast, fewer than 6 in 10 voters who supported Biden said they would be enthusiastic about the former vice president becoming the party’s nominee. The enthusiasm gap is smaller in Missouri, where about 8 in 10 Sanders voters were enthusiastic about his candidacy compared to roughly 7 in 10 Biden backers who were enthusiastic about their choice.
After Biden’s strong showing among black voters in several key Super Tuesday states last week, election watchers have been speculating as to whether that trend will carry forward into Michigan. When it comes to turnout, at least, early exit polls by Edison Research suggest that black voters were on track to make up about the same share of the Michigan Democratic primary electorate as they were in the last presidential cycle, making up about 1 in 5 voters. In 2016, 70 percent of Democratic primary voters in Michigan were white and 21 percent were black. Then, a 56 percent majority of white voters supported Sanders while a 68 percent majority of black voters supported Clinton.
and exit polls in other places as well:
According to early exit polls, about half of Democratic primary voters in Missouri and Michigan said that the economic system needed a “complete overhaul.” In Washington state, slightly fewer said so and about half said that just minor changes were needed. On Super Tuesday in the three states where the exit poll asked about what needed to happen to the economy, votes varied. In California, 50 percent said the economy needed a complete overhaul; In Colorado, 48 percent; and in Virginia, 42 percent said the same. Earlier, in South Carolina, 53 percent of Democratic primary voters said the economy needed a complete overhaul.
Health care was the top issue for Democrats voting Tuesday, according to preliminary exit polls. It has consistently been the top issue among the four issues offered in exit polls throughout this year’s Democratic primaries. Over 4 in 10 primary voters cited health care as the most important issue in Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri. It was cited at the top issue by a smaller share in Washington, nearly 4 in 10. In Washington, roughly 1 in 4 voters said climate change was the most important issue, and the same number said income inequality was their top issue. About 1 in 5 voters cited each of those issues in Michigan. In Mississippi, about 1 in 4 voters cited income inequality as the top issue. Race relations was the third most important in Mississippi and the least likely to be the top issue in Michigan, Missouri and Washington.
Happy hour is on at the Tuesday Night Hangout Club! Consider this an open thread. Polls close at 8PM in MI.
This drink is called The Hummer and was invented in Detroit.
But Rolling Stone spoke to multiple current and former Sanders aides who worry the Senator’s personality — he’s phobic about personal confrontation and retains traces of an inferiority complex from his days as an Independent straggler — might lead him to miss a chance at history. They say the campaign, which declined to comment for this story, has, among other things, declined to aggressively confront Joe Biden on issues like Social Security, trade, and the bankruptcy bill.
“Bernie is conflict-averse,” says Matt Stoller, who worked for Sanders for two years. “His staff has always had real trouble getting him to criticize any Democrat by name.”
“Bernie is always better on the counterpunch, on the rope-a-dope,” says Mark Longabaugh, who was chief strategist for Bernie’s 2016 campaign. “When he lands, it’s usually a counterpunch, like ‘I wrote the damn bill.’ It’s hard for him to go on the attack.”
“I always said, if he learned anything from 2016, it’s that in order to win the nomination, to beat the political establishment, you have to take it from their cold, dead hands. You have to go to war with these people,” the longtime former aide says. “But Bernie is acting like he’s running for State Senator in Burlington.”
As a result, even as a staggered Democratic Party political establishment scrambled all year to undercut him, openly signaling a willingness to overturn voter will at this summer’s convention in Milwaukee, Sanders seemed content to keep giving the same speech he’s been giving for thirty years, what some current and former aides affectionately call the “Berniefesto.”
The 2020 primary race is not over. The delegate gap is not that big, Sanders has favorable states upcoming (Michigan will be a key test), and a March 15th debate in Arizona will test Biden, who’s struggled to use all his time in earlier contests. Elizabeth Warren blew up Mike Bloomberg’s candidacy in thirty seconds of a January debate. Bernie should be able to do the same to Biden, a man who leads with his face in verbal combat. But he’ll need to step out of his comfort zone, and soon.
Springfield, Virginia, a chilly February 28. Three hours before Sanders is set to speak, a crowd of seven or eight thousand huddles in an entrance line. There is nowhere to park for a half-mile out. The World Bernie Tour is here.
“Baby Yoda!” a salesman of Bernie merch cracks with a smile, when asked what his top-selling product is. A t-shirt showing a small green alien Bernie, telling all THIS IS THE WAY, has been a popular meme on the 2020 campaign.
For years now, mere conferral of Bernie’s presence creates a box office event. Bill Clinton reached this rare air, as did Sarah Palin of all people, and Barack Obama. Donald Trump is the standard-bearer: If Led Zeppelin sold time-share, it might approximate what Trump rallies look like today. But Bernie is a political star in his own right.
Sanders is an anti-showman. Obama sold looks and verbal brilliance, Palin was Roseanne, and Clinton tried to mate with his crowds. Bernie is an old man talking about Medicare. In an era when America is tired of the bullshit, the absence of a come-on is a smash hit.
“Overnight, Sanders went from clear frontrunner to a candidate with a major problem. With rival Democrats no longer doing him the favor of fracturing the field — Pete Buttigieg and Amy “Snow Woman” Klobuchar both threw in with Biden after South Carolina — the Sanders trajectory looked like it might end at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, unless he found a way to expand beyond his base.
Reluctance to cut the cord with Democrats who are “trying to put a bazooka to his head” is part of what finally disillusioned the unnamed longtime aide, who notes that Bernie’s unwillingness to engage people like Biden is “self-sabotaging, but also selfish. It’s not comfortable for him to call out people he likes, but it’s not about him anymore… He has millions of people who’ve put their hopes in him.”
There is a legend being circulated now in the press that the Sanders campaign was somehow sunk by “negativity,” that online rancor and divisiveness placed a ceiling on Bernie’s rise. That this is transparent pundit gaslighting is made clear by the trajectory of Warren. Having built her brand as a progressive years ago by attacking none other than Joe Biden over the bankruptcy bill, Warren as a presidential candidate holstered those attacks against her onetime chief intraparty rival, stressed “unity”, and — got crushed at the polls. If you want to see where a progressive platform without aggressive distinctions goes, it’s proven to be nowhere.
However, as Longabaugh points out, attacking rivals in a multi-candidate field can have unpredictable results.
“People don’t realize how hard this is, standing onstage with someone and sticking a shiv in,” says Longabaugh. “I actually think Bernie has played this pretty well,” Longabaugh says. “He may find it easier to draw contrasts with Biden in a two-way race.”
The reluctance to engage strongly with Biden speaks to the larger issue of Bernie’s attitude toward the Democratic Party. Sanders clearly sees the Party’s flaws and rails against its susceptibility to corporate influence, but has trouble understanding that the current leadership will never truly accept him and his message, unless forced. He’s been reluctant to use his mass appeal as a cudgel, preferring to focus on making a case to the public — a strategy that has served him extremely well, but still.
“You gotta weaponize this shit,” says the longtime aide. “You’ve got to go to these people in the party and say, ‘You can either accept it, or be killed by it.’” The aide notes there’s an obvious example of how to use a populist pulpit. “Trump is crazy, but there are things you can learn from him.”
Sanders staffers speak of the Senator with great admiration. Even those who’ve parted on bad terms indicate that at one time or another, they would have have taken a bullet for the man. All are amazed by the size of the movement he’s been able to build.
The issue is converting phenomenon into victory. There is a passionate debate within Bernieworld over the best way to get there. Drawing stronger contrasts with Biden is only part of the picture.
Some for instance wonder if the candidate has done enough on the inside. The “rock concert” has been miraculously effective in building popular support despite a near-total absence of institutional or media backing, but that doesn’t preclude “walking and chewing gum at the same time,” a
Bernie could have been on the phone every day for the last four years, back-channeling figures like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and even Barack Obama even as he blowtorched traditional Democrats like Biden on the trail. Would that have produced a different result?
Others wonder about the mechanics of a presidential run: Did Sanders do enough? He raised a ton of money, hitting $50 million per month, a massive sum for this kind of candidate. Did he spend it in the right places, in the most delegate-rich regions and media markets? Was/is there enough focus on who will serve as delegates? Was/is enough attention being paid to questions like the bureaucratic structure of the Milwaukee Democratic convention?
Sanders himself clearly views his campaign as an effort to rescue and restore the Democratic Party, at least as he understands it — the party of F.D.R., and the working-class voters it traditionally represented, dating back to his youth. He’s been burning up air miles in an effort to replace the corporate-funded political model with one backed by a movement of millions of people. As he put it to Rolling Stone four years ago, “Our future is not raising money from wealthy people, but mobilizing millions of working people and young people and people of color.”
Some part of Sanders seems to hold out hope that something is left over in the DNA of the Democratic Party from those F.D.R. days, something that can be saved and restored. He seems to have a nostalgic fondness for it, as he seems to for Biden himself.
But this version of the Democratic Party that now has Biden as its face wants to bury him. They’ve smeared him as a racist, sexist dupe for Putin, an amateur and back-bencher who doesn’t understand power and can’t “get things done.”
By getting as far as he has, and raising as much money as he has, Sanders has already demolished half of that argument. To finish the job, he has to show he understands the difference between doing well and winning, against an opponent who pathetically, insultingly beatable. For all of the institutional obstacles before him, despite the wall of media sycophants and the waterfall of fresh Wall Street money against him, Bernie should be offended to be losing to the likes of Joe Biden. But he’s running out of time to get angry.
The Sanders Campaign is having a rally right now in Detroit. Rashida Tlaib is expected to introduce Bernie.
Hi Birdies–it’s a big primary night. Poll closing Times: OH-4:30 PT/6:30 CT/7:30ET Kansas, Missouri – 5pm PT/7pm CT/8pm ET Michigan – 6PT/9CT/9ET (polls are open the same amount of hours in the Central time zone, which is in the UPI) Washington – 8:00 PT/10pm CT/11ET Incumbents count on low turnout in midterm primaries. That's why we've been all #GetOutTheVote and #GOTV on social all weekend. Voters in MI, MO, KS, and WA need to know who the Justice Democrat in their district is. Share this to help spread the word. https://t.co/bx994hx3cb pic.twitter.com/OFxuO7T4RE — Justice Democrats (@justicedems) August 6, 2018 Most …Continue reading →
Bernie Sanders returned Sunday to Michigan, the state that re-vamped his underdog 2016 presidential campaign, hoping to boost the candidacy of another long-shot progressive looking to score an upset.
Sanders joined Abdul El-Sayed, 33, for two rallies — the first at the Cobo Center in downtown Detroit, and the second in the town of Ypsilanti, 30 minutes west of the Motor City.
Taking the stage Sunday afternoon in Detroit, El-Sayed — who is trying to capture the Democratic nomination in this year’s Michigan gubernatorial race — echoed Sanders’ populist rhetoric, asking the crowd: “Who here believes in democracy over corporate domination?”
“We’ve got a broken politics, our politics right now have been dominated by corporate interests,” El-Sayed told the crowd, saying both parties are to blame for the issues plaguing the current political system.
El-Sayed also trumpeted his plan to create a “Medicare-for-All” healthcare system that he dubs “Michicare.” He added that the state needs to “de-Devos” its education system, an ode to U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, a former chair of the Michigan Republican Party.
Sanders hearkened back to his upset victory in the state over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential primaries.
“On the day before the presidential primaries here in Michigan, the polls had me 27 points behind,” Sanders told the crowd. “That was pretty good, because the poll the day before had me 36 points behind.
“Well, we won that election, and by the way, so will Abdul,” Sanders said.
Join us in Detroit as we rally to get out the vote with Senator Bernie Sanders, Our Revolution President Nina Turner, and many more! Join the movement: abdulforgovernor.comAbdul hits the stage at 3:30 and Bernie will join shortly after.