I know we’re all focused on the Comey hearing, but there is another major political event underway. The UK snap general election is today! It’ll determine the composition of the 650 member House of Commons.
Since Theresa May called the election on April 19, she has seen the Conservative party’s lead over Labour collapse by 10-15%, with a small rebound last week.
As always, final result will depend on turnout. Exit polls have been historically accurate in the UK, so we should have a good idea right after polls close, as to whether or not Labour has been able to make up the big gap. Pollsters will be watching to see whether younger voters turn out for Labour.
538 has gamed out three scenarios and odds-makers have a 15% probability that the Conservative party loses its Parliamentary majority (i.e. wins less than 326 seats).
The 2015 election results and current House of Commons are below:
|Party||Leader||% of vote||Seats|
|Conservative Party||Theresa May||36.80%||330|
|Labour Party||Jeremy Corbyn||30.40%||232|
|Scottish National Party||Nicola Sturgeon||4.70%||56|
|Liberal Democrats||Tim Farron||7.90%||8|
|Plaid Cymru||Leanne Wood||0.60%||3|
|UK Independence Party||Paul Nuttall||12.70%||1|
|Green Party of England and Wales||Jonathan Bartley, Caroline Lucas||3.80%||1|
Some parties (Sinn Fein, DUP) aren’t reflected in the table above. Liberal Democrats are polling around 9%, UKIP and the SNP are both around 5%. The UKIP’s support seems to have largely collapsed.
The Guardian has live coverage
The Telegraph will also have live coverage.